Start of a new Bull Market? … or Bear Market Rally?

by bigbear0083

During the 2000-03 bear market there was a +21.4%, +20.7%, and another +20.9% rally before the market ultimately fell -49.2% at its low point.

( ^ CHART POSTED AT THE TOP OF THIS THREAD ^ )

And more recently during in the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) bear market, there was at least one +24% rally, before falling -56.8%.

( ^ CHART POSTED AT THE TOP OF THIS THREAD ^ )

So, while the talking heads in the media might be going gaga over the fact that the Dow just bounced over +20% from its bear market closing low from this past Monday, and technically putting it into bull territory, let’s not get too crazy here because we have seen this movie before.

BA (Boeing) was a large contributor for the price weighted Dow 30 outperforming the other major indexes this past week.

(CHART)

FWIW, for me personally I don’t think it’s a “new bull market” until the previous closing All-Time Highs have been set, and not just a +20% rise from the lowest close of the whole down move. But AFAIK, that is not widely accepted or used which is a little ridiculous imho.

Anyway, I just thought to share this in here, as I was hearing a lot of chatter this past week how the start of a new bull market had emerged in the Dow 30 this past week, and how that was somehow the bottom and a more meaningful turnaround.

 

h/t bigbear0083

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.