Start of a new Bull Market? … or Bear Market Rally?

by bigbear0083

During the 2000-03 bear market there was a +21.4%, +20.7%, and another +20.9% rally before the market ultimately fell -49.2% at its low point.

( ^ CHART POSTED AT THE TOP OF THIS THREAD ^ )

And more recently during in the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) bear market, there was at least one +24% rally, before falling -56.8%.

( ^ CHART POSTED AT THE TOP OF THIS THREAD ^ )

So, while the talking heads in the media might be going gaga over the fact that the Dow just bounced over +20% from its bear market closing low from this past Monday, and technically putting it into bull territory, let’s not get too crazy here because we have seen this movie before.

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BA (Boeing) was a large contributor for the price weighted Dow 30 outperforming the other major indexes this past week.

(CHART)

FWIW, for me personally I don’t think it’s a “new bull market” until the previous closing All-Time Highs have been set, and not just a +20% rise from the lowest close of the whole down move. But AFAIK, that is not widely accepted or used which is a little ridiculous imho.

Anyway, I just thought to share this in here, as I was hearing a lot of chatter this past week how the start of a new bull market had emerged in the Dow 30 this past week, and how that was somehow the bottom and a more meaningful turnaround.

 

h/t bigbear0083

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.

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