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# Statistical Proof: China is Lying

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by Zalinsky

I have created a spreadsheet proving the China is lying about their deaths and recoveries. I look at the historical confirmed cases, make some assumption on timing, and prove that there should be a lot more cases listed as either recovered or dead. There are a lot of cases missing from their official stats.

The spreadsheet assumes that the full lifecycle from onset of symptoms to resolution is 10 days, and that people don’t go to the hospital until they have some symptoms. So once someone is a confirmed case, they should have a resolution in max 10 days. Any case older than 10 days old should either be dead or recovered.

I further assume (in cells E2:N3) that not everyone checks in on Day 1 of symptoms and has a full 10 days to resolution. We know from the Lancet paper on the first 99 patients that some died very quickly. We also know that many people are sick for days before deciding to go to the hospital or finding a hospital to test them.

I assume the following at the moment
Check in Day 1 of symptoms: 5%
Check in Day 2 of symptoms: 10%
Check in Day 3 of symptoms: 25%
Check in Day 4 of symptoms: 30%
Check in Day 5 of symptoms: 25%
Check in Day 6 of symptoms: 5%
Check in Day 7 of symptoms: 0%
Check in Day 8 of symptoms: 0%
Check in Day 9 of symptoms: 0%
Check in Day 10 of symptoms: 0%

The conclusion is that we should have 4,181 resolved cases based on my assumptions.

China currently has :
475 Recovered

That is 836 total.

That means around 3345 cases are missing from the statistics.

Where are the rest of the cases, China?

[EDIT: Just wanted to add one edit. This proves lying using China’s own numbers! There is a whole separate issue of whether they are underreporting confirmed cases or not. Plenty of evidence and speculation of that. But this further proves that even by their own reported numbers, they must be underreporting deaths and/or recoveries.]

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