Stock rout may deepen in the week ahead as coronavirus impact starts to show up in economic data

  • Stocks might still be searching for its bottom next week when investors grapple with a slew of economic data potentially being dragged down by the coronavirus.
  • “Look out for ISM surveys and Beige Book for early signs of COVID-19 impact,” said Michelle Meyer, Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics. “We are already seeing evidence in early economic indicators.”
  • The Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing gauge on Monday. The Fed will publish its latest Beige Book Wednesday, which details anecdotal information on current economic conditions.

Stock investors just experienced one of the nastiest weeks in history that recorded the S&P 500′s fastest correction on record, but hold on tight, the market might have more room to fall as the coronavirus damage starts to creep into upcoming economic data, analysts warned.

Major U.S. stock averages suffered their worst week since the financial crisis as fears about the coronavirus disrupting the global economy scared investors away from risk assets. However, stocks might still be searching for a bottom next week when investors grapple with a slew of economic data potentially dragged down by the outbreak.

The Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing gauge on Monday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, which will detail anecdotal information on current economic conditions. Many expect U.S. manufacturing to have taken a hit from the coronavirus.

“Look out for ISM surveys and Beige Book for early signs of COVID-19 impact,” Michelle Meyer, Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics, said in a note Friday. “It will take time for the ‘hard’ economic data to show the impact but we are already seeing evidence in early economic indicators.”

Weekend action?

The outlook for the week could be changed this weekend by coronavirus headlines or by some sort of intervention by central banks. Expectations are rising on Wall Street that there could be some potential move from the Federal Reserve to get ahead of what could be another rough week.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank is monitoring the coronavirus and pledged action if necessary. Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh recommended the Fed act as quickly as Sunday before the markets reopen. The market is already pricing in a 100% chance of at least one rate cut at the Fed’s March policy meeting.

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, is worried about the cascading effect of coronavirus hitting upcoming economic data points. “ISM manufacturing is going to be widely scrutinized,” he said.

The ISM manufacturing index rose to a reading of 50.9 last month, the highest level since July (Any reading above 50 signals expansion.) Bank of America expects ISM manufacturing to pull back to 50.0 and said Fed Beige Book may provide “early insight” into the U.S. economic impact from the deadly virus.

www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/stock-rout-to-deepen-as-coronavirus-impact-starts-to-show-up-in-data.html

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