“America has lurched from one crisis to the next in 2020, knocking many people, even professional forecasters, off their feet. But not Matt Gertken, geopolitical strategist for BCA Research.
“Unrest was an easy prediction even before the pandemic and recession, which made matters worse,” wrote Gertken in a note out Friday.”
“In his most recent analysis, he skips the victory lap and instead focuses on what it means for markets. Broadly, volatility is likely to worsen, and equities SPX, +1.30% DJIA, +1.90% to be vulnerable. More specifically, Gertken notes, the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.36% is likely face choppy waters over the near term, but some of the headwinds may abate over the long term.
“The market is reacting to stimulus now,” Gertken writes, “but policies look to turn a lot tougher on business,” no matter who wins the White House in November.”
““Either the market sells off in the short run to register the currently likely victory of Joe Biden, who will hike taxes, wages, and regulation, or the market rallies all the way till the election, increasing the chances of President Trump’s reelection, which would revolutionize the global system, especially on trade, and would require a selloff around December.””