TA may be meaningless right now, but it shows a big week ahead

by BattletoadRash

From a TA perspective this should be a pivotal week, as we are now approaching 3 separate levels of resistance:

  1. In our initial downturn, we hit the 2860 level as a low on 02/28 where it acted as support. We then hit it again as a high (2880) on 03/10, where it flipped and acted as resistance. We haven’t been back since until this past Friday.
  2. Friday was also the first time since 02/21 that the S&P was not below the 50 day moving average… we hit it right on the button. This is also represented by the MACD crossing the 0 axis.
  3. The higher highs and higher lows of the upswing that started on 03/24 haven’t formed a parallel channel, but rather a narrowing triangle. The trend lines of this triangle are set to intersect by the end of this week.

If we break through these 3 levels of resistance, the next level up would be around 3130. If we bounce off, the next support levels would be around 2630 and 2460.

TA may not mean much in the face of a black swan event where the news changes daily and the fed is printing unprecedented amounts of money… but I still feel like this will be a pivotal week. I personally think the retracement from the lows was too optimistic, and we’ll be headed back towards the 2630 and 2460 support levels. Trying to pick a few good short positions for the week.