by laflammaster ISM comes out October 3rd Final GDP number comes out October 26th https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=4
by laflammaster Are we in a recession yet? It should be interesting to hear what the US Gov has to say on Sept 15th. Perhaps like that nasty inflation thingy, this too will be a “transitory” slip of the tongue …
by confoundedinterest17 University of Chicago economist and Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler says he doesn’t see anything that resembles a recession in the U.S. It used to be that economists would see two consecutive quarters of negative Real GDP growth and say “recession.” …
by laflammaster The Atlanta Fed lowered its Q2 #GDP forecast again. It now stands at -1.6%, matching the reading from Q1. It's amazing how so many analysis still don't have a #recession in their 2022 or even 2023 economic forecasts …
by confoundedinterest17 Oh Atlanta! Fed, that is. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 real-time GDP index fell to 0.631%. And the Atlanta Fed REAL wage tracker fell to -2.38 growth. Volatility reigns supreme on the energy front (look at NYM Dubai crude AVAT!) …
by confoundedinterest17 The Shadow Knows! Wu-Xia employs an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. It can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects …
BY JOHN RUBINO Conventional wisdom holds that the U.S. economy is overheating. New workers are virtually unavailable, raw material costs are soaring, and of course financial asset prices are in the stratosphere. And that’s why the Fed has to tighten aggressively. …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden spokesperson Jen Paski and the White House always have an excuse for bad news. Perhaps they watched John Belushi in “The Blues Brothers” for help with “It wasn’t my fault!” excuses. (Bloomberg) — The White House is lowering expectations for …
The estimated consumption growth rate fell from 7.9% to 2.0%. — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 14, 2022 Growth/Value rotation continues. h/t @thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/GzkwZAF4Oj — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 14, 2022 QT is coming pic.twitter.com/t1F6Xz0QXq — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) January 14, …
by confoundedinterest17 Despite monetary Stimulypto from The Federal Reserve (still growing!), US real GDP has fallen to almost zero. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.2 percent on …
In July the CNBC consenus forecast median was a massive 8%!! What iz this, the Second Great Depression or something? https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Latest estimate: 1.3 percent — October 5, 2021 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) …
by confoundedinterest17 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan repeated his call for policy makers to begin a discussion of slowing their asset purchases, a day after minutes of the Fed’s April meeting showed an increased interest in talking about …
Why is ATL Fed GDPNow 1Q18 est. Crashing? pic.twitter.com/bFVNyUeCZe — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) April 18, 2018 “The last thing I want to see is growth in credit card, student and auto lending at too rapid a rate if we are heading …
by stockboardasset It has only been a few weeks since the 5.5% print of 1Q18 Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Fast forward a few weeks later, and the GDPNow has crashed by more than 50%. Find out below, why the trend is collapsing and what could happen …