St Louis Fed: Negative SCI growth for more than 26 states. Recession official?
The economists will only call the recession a recession after the recession has ended. h/t shobhitd11
growth
US Housing Leading Growth Index Slumps To Lowest Since 1982 And 2008 Recessions (Fed Pivot Coming?)
by confoundedinterest17 As we begin 2023 (and I am still bummed-out over Ohio State University losing a nail-bitter to Georgia in the Peach Bowl), we need to look at the condition of one of the most important sectors of the US …
US November Pending Home Sales Crash (-38.6% YoY) As Fed Tightens And M2 Money Growth Grinds To A Near Halt
by confoundedinterest17 US existing home sales in November collapsed by -38.6% YoY as M2 Money growth runs out of gas. The above chart is similar to yesterday’s “Ski Slope” chart of US home prices YoY. What will President Biden do about …
US Home Price Growth “Slows” To 9.24% YoY As Fed Tightens Noose (But Fed’s Balance Sheet Remains Elevated)
by confoundedinterest17 The US housing market continued to sag in October as the impact of higher mortgage rates and concerns over the economy rattled buyers and sellers. Prices fell 0.5% from September, the fourth consecutive monthly decline for a seasonally adjusted …
Real Wage Growth Falls For The 20th Month
by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in 12 months. According to …
US Real GDP Growth Forecast To Be Dismal 0.50% In 2023, Personal Savings Rate -67.9% YoY In October, US Mortgage Rates Headed Down (Economic Lights On But Nobody’s Home)
by confoundedinterest17 Albert Collins said it best about the US economy under Joe Biden: “Lights Are On But Nobody’s Home”. The Federal Reserve forecast for the US economy is a dismal 0.50% YoY. Do I detect a trend? The FOMC forecast for …
Catastrophic: Fed Revises New Job Growth From 1.2 million to 10K for Q2.
The Fed has been raising interest rates on cooked books created to make a political party look competent. The Feds goal is to slow the economy down by raising interest rates to get inflation under control. They want to see …
Gone In November? US Inflation Growth Slows To 7.1% YoY, Real Hourly Wage Growth “Improves” To -1.9% YoY (Fuel Oil UP 65.7%, Food At Home UP 12%)
by confoundedinterest17 Is inflation “gone in November”? Nope. Slowing, yes, but at 7.1% YoY and core inflation at 6.0% YoY, it is still considerably higher than The Fed’s target of 2%. And the American middle class and low wage workers are still suffering …
The Last Time (For Fed Hikes Rates)? Fed Forecasts SLOW Growth 1.2% YoY In 2023 As CMBS Are Getting Hit (Investors Worry About Credit Risk As Economy Weakens)
by confoundedinterest17 This will be the last time (Fed rate hikes) as the US economy is forecast to either go into a recession in 2023 or slow down to an anemic 1.20% Real GDP YoY. Even the Fed is forecasting 3.10% core …
Money Supply Growth In October Fell To A 39-Month Low: A Recession Is Now Almost Guaranteed
by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute Money supply growth fell again in October, dropping to a thirty-nine-month low. October’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during the thirteen months between April 2020 and April 2021. During that period, …
Global Growth to Be as Weak Next Year as 2009
The world economy will be as weak next year as it was in 2009 after the financial crisis as the conflict in Ukraine risks becoming a “forever war,” the Institute of International Finance said. Global growth is expected to slow …
IMF: Persistent Inflation Will Slow Economic Growth
by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan The International Monetary Fund has issued a rather gloomy outlook for the larger global economy. Persistent inflation is going to slow economic growth making the outcome “gloomier” than they originally expected. According to its own website, the International …
Demographic Cliff + Let It Rot = Collapse of Global Growth
by Charles Hugh-Smith As workforces shrink and opting out becomes increasingly attractive, Global Growth implodes on both the production and consumption sides. A funny thing happened on the way to permanent global growth. Actually, three funny things happened. One is the …
It’s difficult for China to achieve 5% growth this year
#PBOC advisor Liu Shijin:It's difficult for #China to achieve 5% growth this year;China should aim for at least 5% growth next year pic.twitter.com/nRcgsLr5GL — Cathy Yuan Zhang (@CathyYuanZhang) November 18, 2022
Growth/Inflation tradeoffs across G10
by Infamous_Sympathy_91 These GS forecasts seem a little optimistic on inflation reduction in 2023 and hence real growth rates (using British understatement here).
Alarm! REAL Average Hourly Earnings At -2.8% YoY In October, Negative Growth Since March 2021 (19 Straight Months Of Negative Earnings Growth!)
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! The inflation numbers are out for October and they still stink (headline inflation still sizzling at 7.7% YoY). But the number that really irks me is … REAL average hourly earnings growth is at a horrifying -2.8% YoY …
How Biden And The Fed Defanged The FANG Index And Clobbered Growth And Real Estate ETFs (Cousin Eddie And Clark Griswold Strike Again!)
by confoundedinterest17 There is no doubt that Biden is the Cousin Eddie of politics with his gifts that keep on giving. Like rampant inflation, soaring food, gasoline and diesel prices, and Pelosi/Schumer’s helping hand in creating price controls that will kill potential cures for …
Deceleration Nation! US Home Price Growth Slows Most On Record In August As Fed Hits Brakes, But Still Growing At 12.99% YoY (US Treasury 10-yr Yield DOWN -17 BPS Today)
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! US home prices are decelerating as inflation rages and The Fed tightens. Home price growth in the US slowed the most on record as a doubling of borrowing costs (thanks to the US Federal Reserve) has sapped demand. A …
The End of the “Growth” Road
by Charles Hugh-Smith Everyone caught by surprise that the infinite road actually has an end will face a bewildering transition. The End of the “Growth” Road is upon us, though the consensus continues to hold fast to the endearing fantasy …
China growth has been over for a while… They’ve just stopped being able to hide it
Expats leaving China en masse; from Blackrock Capital to Peter Zeihan, “China growth is over”. In China, the CCP Congress is in progress, where Winnie the Flu is looking to have himself crowned as de facto dictator for life. A …
Germany Hits Record Population Growth
by Martin Armstrong There are now 84 million people living in Germany, according to the German Federal Statistical Office. This has nothing to do with the birth rate, which is on the decline. Instead, the number of Ukrainians seeking refuge in …
In Latest Recession Signal, Money-Supply Growth Plummeted to a Three-Year Low in August
by Ryan McMaken of Mises Institute Money supply growth fell again in August, dropping to a 36-month low. August’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. During the thirteen months between April 2020 and April …
Why does the IMF care more about equality than growth?
The IMF is less than impressed with Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s first mini-budget. In the kind of admonishment you’d normally expect them to make about an emerging economy, they said, ‘the nature of the UK measures will likely increase …
Corporate Profit Growth Will Slow, Says the Fed
By Michael Lebowitz Michael Smolyansky, a senior Fed economist, claims corporate profit growth will slow appreciably. His case rests on corporate tax rates and interest rates. Access to his white paper, The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock …
Premier Li stressed efforts to stabilise economic growth…
Premier Li stressed efforts to stabilise economic growth.He reiterated China will promote sustained and healthy development of platform economy and special loans will be used to support the platform companies. pic.twitter.com/1Ci9dc4dAO — Cathy Yuan Zhang (@CathyYuanZhang) September 13, 2022 China's …
Has the FED said, “No more!”? ON RRP growth has totally stalled out starting in June 2022, clinging to a range of $2.2T-$2.3T. Does this mean bank reserves are no longer building? Are banks being forced to move cash somewhere else? Has new money creation slowed that much? End game? What mean?
by Get-It-Got https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
Slowdown! US PMI Composite Index Slumps To 44.6 As M2 Money Growth Slows (Fed Tightening Starting To Hurt)
by confoundedinterest17 The US Composite PMI was released this morning and it printed at 44.6. Not surprising given that M2 Money growth has slowed as The Fed removes its monetary punch bowl. M2 stimulus is foul-tasting for the middle class and …
August Jobs Growth Slows To 315k Added, REAL Wage Growth Continues To Decline -3.3% YoY, Multiple Jobholders Increases (Fed Will Interpret At Green Light To Further Raise Interest Rates)
by confoundedinterest17 The August jobs report is out. 315k jobs were added, which was considerably higher than the ADP jobs added report of 132k. Hmm. Be that as it may, US Average Hourly Earnings YoY remained at 5.2%. That’s a …
Will Gold Finally Rally If Third Quarter Growth Is Negative?
by Arkadiusz Sieron of Sunshine Profits Even a Steep Decline in PMI Didn’t Move Gold Higher According to recent PMI reports, the third quarter of 2022 could also see negative GDP growth. Will gold finally rally then? The latest S&P Global Flash US …