by Chris Black When judging policy, Fed officials pay attention to what’s called the Phillips Curve, which plots inflation as an inversely correlated function of unemployment (higher inflation = higher employment, and vice-versa). The Phillips Curve would imply that the …
Indeed global central bank balance sheets have been expanding since October similar to the flip we saw in 2019. The result then: Equities rallied hard. The result now: The same. The world is not flat. It's global liquidity stupid. pic.twitter.com/p3vV8Shpbd …
by bitkogan In March, more banks tightened credit terms for medium and large business loans (46%) as compared with January (44.8%). Lending standards for residential real estate loans also tightened in all categories except for government-sponsored enterprise-eligible and government residential …
Credit conditions in Europe are tightening at the fastest pace since 2009. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/QEQEEgK9lm — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 1, 2023 The banking crisis is just beginningWe have called it right for months The worst is yet to come …
by Chris Black Here’s what the Fed’s own data says: Dallas Fed Banking Conditions Survey (BCS) (https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/bcs/2023/bcs2302): “Credit standards and terms continued to tighten sharply, and marked rises in loan pricing were also noted over the reporting period. Banking outlooks …
by confoundedinterest17 Inflation started with Biden’s misguided war on US energy, then Biden/Congress helped inflation with an epic spending splurge. The Federal Reserve counterattacked with Fed rate hikes. Over the past year, The Fed Funds Effective rate has risen and US …
S&P 500 rally is a bull trap; bear market will resume in March – MS h/t throwaway273322
JUST IN: Total U.S. credit card debt has just hit a record $986 billion. This marks a $61 billion increase in Q4 2022 as well as the largest quarterly increase since 1999. Fastest rising interest rates in history with record …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve is doing Archie Bell and The Drells “Do The Tighten Up!” Over the fourth quarter, significant net shares of banks reported having tightened standards on C&I loans to firms of all sizes. Banks also reported having tightened all …
Soft landings 🟩 have only occurred in the wake of a Fed tightening cycle when inflation was muted. 1966, 1985, 1995, and 2019. Things could be different for other reasons; I’ll believe it when I see it. So far #HOPE …
by confoundedinterest17 U.S. oil refining margins, also known as the 3-2-1 crack spread, jumped to a three-month high on Tuesday — and that’s an indication the country faces an ongoing product shortage that might lead to higher gasoline and diesel …
by confoundedinterest17 Silvergate! Silvergate Capital Corp. shares plunged after the bank said the crypto industry’s meltdown triggered a run on deposits, prompting the company to sell assets at a steep loss and fire 40% of its staff. Customers withdrew about $8.1 …
by silvertomars The Anti Narrative FED rate hike chart. So many people circulating rate hike charts missing out the 70s… Inflation is insane!
https://twitter.com/steveanastasiou/status/1604771059852800001 Nearly 70% of Americans struggling to pay grocery bills, per Fox Business News. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 18, 2022 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1604609026129633281 One third of Americans are thinking of skipping holiday gifts altogether this year, due to inflation, per Bloomberg. — …
by confoundedinterest17 Interesting story on Alignable. Due to high inflation, reduced consumer spending, higher rents and other economic pressures, U.S.-based small business owners’ rent problems just escalated to new heights nationally this month, based on Alignable’s November Rent Poll of …
Bank credit standards are already tight enough to curb private credit creation. Mind the 4-quarter lag. pic.twitter.com/OdhHXtgF1K — Steve Donzé (@steve_donze) November 24, 2022 https://t.co/thBvOcvlOP — Tuomas Malinen (@mtmalinen) November 24, 2022 A storm is brewing… ⛈️ $SPY $VIXhttps://t.co/KdGBS3oxAZ — …
Still irritating that these guys have more treasuries and a lot more MBS than they did even a year ago, when official CPI was already 6.8%, and Case-Shiller was running at 18.8% YOY. This QT is really roaring along.@federalreserve pic.twitter.com/JsNpvwsqQZ …
Central banks have not been able to reduce their balance sheet after a QE. Even Fed was very hesitant in the second half of 2010s. They “don’t know” the impact they say but I suspect they fear too much market …
by confoundedinterest17 The midterm elections are now over, so let’s go back and look at economic news, rather than listening to election hysteria. The net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for small, large, and middle-market firms is tending towards recession. …
by confoundedinterest17 This is the Biden Boogaloo! The National Association of Home Builders index just dropped to 38 for October as The Fed counterattacks Bidenflation by raising rates. Here is Biden dispensing his “economic medicine” to Americans. Remember, Biden says the US economy …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenflation is just killing us. Now rising prices and The Fed’s counterattack are killing retail sales for American consumers. US retail sales were sluggish last month, suggesting shoppers are becoming more guarded about discretionary purchases in the worst …
by confoundedinterest17 Happy Columbus Day! As I discussed yesterday in my post entitled “The Perils Of Fed Tightening In One Chart (Or Sweet Home DC!) Treasury Yield Curve Remains In Reversion And Stock Market Declining As Fed Reduces Money Supply Growth,” The Federal …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s green energy policies (limiting supply) caused a tremendous surge in energy prices and food prices (one has to pay to get food shipped!). But in order for The Fed to cool inflation, they are in the process of …
by BoatSurfer600 Credit defaults just at the START of an exponential rise….love it pic.twitter.com/4mIUnkOMqe — Craig Mako (@CraigMako) August 28, 2022 The Fed has never hiked rates during a recession, expect stock markets to fall another 50% – Todd ‘Bubba’ Horwitz …
By Robert Lambourne via GATA So far this month the daily cash reports from the U.S. Treasury are demonstrating reasonably consistent cash outflows and debt buildup. There is a huge amount of noise in daily cash movements, but the gross debt is close …
Basically. The US has asked countries with cutting edge Fab. To refrain from selling tech to China. Also No more can China Fab 10nm. The US is only allowing China to Fab upto 14nm. The US has reached out to …
by confoundedinterest17 The US is goin’ down. At least in terms of housing supply growth. The US is short on supply of housing for a myriad of reasons (high costs, Not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) local zoning laws, etc), but The Fed’s cranking up …
by confoundedinterest17 We are going down this road, feeling bad. As The Fed Reserve prepares to raise their target rate in a week by 75 basis points to 2.50%, the NAHB Home Builder’s confidence index plunged. The 30-year mortgage rate is …
by Boo_Randy ECB has already announced “unlimited” bond buying…all central banks are in a race to debase, so expanding their balance sheets is the exact opposite of “tightening” or fighting inflation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/ecb-bond-tool-seen-having-no-limits-as-steeper-rate-hikes-loom#xj4y7vzkg