Tanker bets aren’t the smartest play on oil, Biofuel is. And the US Military agrees.

by SaunaMango

Not a lot of oil companies worth investing in right now. I seek this shit out since I’m a dumbly engineer in the energy industry, cos it’s all my tube brain can comprehend. Consumer goods or entertainment? In the words of drill sgt Lee Ermey, What The Fuck is that?

Here’s the thing: the oil itself is cheap and demand low, but most places, notably USA and EU, require a portion of sold diesel or gas to be renewable (biofuel), as per climate goals and stuff. [1] This requirement would likely be higher, except for the fact there aren’t a lot of real, competitive producers out there. [2]

Not to mention, the US god damn military is looking to further increase its biofuel use. The US military currently runs partially on biofuel and is very pro-climate action, did you troglodytes know that? They put billions yearly in renewable energy and carbon cutting, cause their own research shows that climate change increases instability globally and risks of extreme weather in the US. [3] [4] All this despite their commander in chief ranting against it. And you never, ever bet against the war machine.

ICE cars (=cars that go brumbrum) will go out of fashion in the coming decade(s). [6] EV’s will take some of those gains BUT they aren’t a master key to this cluster-frick, sorry about those 1,5 shares of TSLA you bet your savings on. Aviation, shipping, military and some automobile applications aren’t gonna run on AA’s cost effectively, and the US gov sure as shit won’t do anything to help that in this oil-mageddon.

SO we have a mini oil market that is partially impervious to market swings, insane growth potential and has various governments and militaries funding it. Something something tits up?


Okay, quality companies in this field are surprisingly hard to find. I’m hoping to harness the retard strength of WSB on this one. We should be interested in US biofuel companies that might supply the military. This is just speculation but big military movements like RIMPAC that guzzle up ludicrous amounts of fuel, should impact these companies? I don’t know. The best performing stonk in the US I found is REGI, but can’t figure out whether Uncle Sam does business with them.

This veers off WSB domain, but the only company I could find that’s REALLY worth investing in is NESTE. Yeah yeah it’s a Euro firm but don’t let the smelly armpits rout you. This chad has grown like 400% in the past 5 years and barely took a dent from COVID (as the biofuel demand is, repeat after me, not completely tied to oil prices or stock markets or even the economy). All this considered IMO P/E 16 is modest compared to some other renewables companies that soar around 20-240. This firm apparently does a lot of refining for the oil imported into Finland, but I’m pretty sure this action has some Finnish national fuel supply security interests behind it. I like a company that the state has interests in. That’s the only reason your pop’s boeing shares aren’t worthless after all.

Whichever company you choose, this sub probs gonna want to go long calls as news of oil demand picking up get people excited about energy companies. Or maybe the military play I mentioned.
(I’m actually going with NESTE shares like some boomer since they pay 2 divvies a year plus long term growth expectations are high)

[1] books.google.fi/books?id=BTWN3TOTJnMC&pg=PA1020&lpg=PA1020&dq=portion+of+sold+fuel+renewable&source=bl&ots=IO7jMwc-W8&sig=ACfU3U1HZxbsvRmTzgto5X0hornLnxfH5A&hl=fi&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj6vIiBstvpAhWawMQBHWYPCmcQ6AEwAHoECAUQAQ#v=onepage&q=portion%20of%20sold%20fuel%20renewable&f=false

[2] www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/use-of-cleaner-and-alternative-fuels/use-of-cleaner-and-alternative-5

[3] oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-The-Military-Will-Spark-The-Death-Of-Fossil-Fuels.html

[4] www.environmentalleader.com/2020/04/market-for-renewable-aviation-fuel-expected-to-skyrocket-over-next-5-years/

[5] www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/oil-and-gas-industry-outlook.html

[6] eto.dnvgl.com/2019/index.html#ETO2019-top


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