The bottom rung of the American consumer is buckling. FOXNEWS: An overwhelming majority of Americans say they can’t afford groceries or gas

The US is fucked… they can’t fight inflation.

What enabled Volcker to kill inflation by hiking rates aggressively was debt-to-GDP being at just ~30%.

Today, we are at over 100% and running $2T deficits…

This means all that rate hikes accomplish is increasing the deficit and thereby increasing inflationary pressures.

In other words, it doesn’t matter whether we get a hike or a cut… the result will be inflation.

The reason debt to GDP was so low during the Volcker era was because the US had inflated the debt away after WWII.

I expect history to rhyme.

We don’t own enough hard assets for what’s coming.

US Consumer Confidence Plunges to the Lowest Level Since 2014

In what should be no surprise, US Consumer Confidence Fell in September

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—retreated by 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was September 1-23, which included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index fell sharply, while the Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.”

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