The last 24 hours have seen a flurry of open mouth operations from the world’s central bankers. There are a couple of reasons for this of which the first is that having burst into action with the speed of Usain Bolt they now have little to do. The second is that they have become like politicians as they bask centre stage in the media spotlight. The third is that their policies require a lot of explaining because they never achieve what they claim so we see long words like “counterfactual” employed to confuse the unwary.
The land of the rising sun
Let us go in a type of reverse order as Governor Kuroda of the Bank of Japan has been speaking this morning and as usual has uttered some gems.
BoJ Gov Kuroda: Repeats BoJ Would Not Hesitate To Add Additional Easing If Needed -BoJ Has Several Tools And Measures To Deploy If Required ( @LiveSquawk )
This is something of a hardy perennial from him the catch though comes with the “if required” bit. You see the April Economic Report from the Ministry of Finance told us this.
The Japanese economy is getting worse rapidly in an extremely severe situation, due to the Novel Coronavirus…….Concerning short-term prospects, an extremely severe situation is expected to remain due to the influence of the infectious disease. Moreover, full attention should be given to the further downside risks to the domestic and foreign economy which are affected by the influence of the infectious disease.
So if not now when? After all the Japanese economy was already in trouble at the end if 2019 as it shrank by 1.8% in the final quarter. Actually he did kind of admit that.
BoJ’s Kuroda: Japan’s Economy To Be Substantially Depressed In Q2
Then looking at his speech another warning Klaxon was triggered.
In the meantime, it expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present
or lower levels.
This raises a wry smile because in many ways the Bank of Japan is the central bank that likes negative interest-rates the least. Yes it has one of -0.1% but it tiptoed into it with the minimum it felt it could and stopped, unlike in other easing areas where it has been happy to be the leader of the pack. Why? Well after nearly 30 years of the lost decade it still worries about the banking sector and whether it could survive them and gives them subsidies back as it is. Frankly it has been an utter disaster and shows one of the weaknesses of the Japanese face culture.
Oh and as we mull the couple of decades of easing we got this as well.
KURODA: RECENT EASING ACTION INCLUDING MORE ETF PURCHASES IS TEMPORARY ( @DeltaOne)
This morning there was just over another 100 billion Yen of equity ETF purchases as we mull another refinement of the definition of temporary in my financial lexicon for these times. It appears to mean something which keeps being increased and never ends.
The Bank of England
The new Governor Andrew Bailey gave an interview to Robert Peston of ITV last night which begged a few questions. The first was how its diversity plans seem to involve so much dealing with the children of peers of the realm and Barons in particular? This of course went disastrously wrong with Deputy Governor Charlotte Hogg who seemed to know as little about monetary policy as she did about the conflict of interest issue which led to her departure. During the interview Robert Peston seemed to be exhibiting a similar degree of competence as I pointed out on social media.
@Peston now says that buying hundreds of billions of debt is different to a decade ago when the Bank of England bought er hundreds of billions of debt. It is frightening that this man was once BBC economics editor.
There was a policy element although it was not news to us I am sure it was to some.
Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has told ITV’s Peston show that one of the main purposes of the Bank buying £200bn of government debt – and probably more over the course of the Covid-19 crisis – is to “spread the cost of this thing to society” and help the government avoid a return to austerity. ( ITV)
To the extent that there was a policy announcement the whole interview was very wrong as it should be on the Bank of England website for all to see rather than boosting the career of one journalist and network. As I note how that person’s career had been under pressure we see the UK establishment in action. I also note that two subjects were not mentioned.
- The apparent dirty protest at the FCA on Andrew Bailey’s watch
- The doubling of overdraft interest-rates after a botched intervention by the FCA on Andrew Bailey’s watch.
The United States
Something rather ominous happened last night as The Hill reports.
“He has done a very good job over the last couple of months, I have to tell you that,” Trump told reporters during a meeting with the governors of Colorado and North Dakota. “Because I have been critical, but in many ways I call him my ‘MIP.’ Do you know what an MIP is? Most improved player. It’s called the Most Improved Player award.”
We noted back in November 2018 that The Donald was taking charge of US monetary policy and that Jerome Powell had become something of a toy. Indeed there was more.
The president said he still is at odds with Powell over his stance on negative interest rates. Trump has for months pushed negative interest rates, arguing the U.S. is on an unfair playing field if other countries have negative rates.
Whilst I disagree with The Donald on negative interest-rates he is at least honest and we know where he stands. Whereas Chair Powell said this.
Speaking to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Powell said negative interest rates are “not something that we’re looking at,” ( Forbes)
Is that an official denial? Anyway it does not go that well with this.
The economic toll has taken an outsized toll on lower-income households, Powell said, with 40% of those employed in February and living in a household that makes less than $40,000 a year losing their job in March.
Conceptually this is a real issue for the US Federal Reserve as such people are unlikely to have many holdings ( or indeed any…) of the assets it keeps pumping up the price of.
As we survey the scene some of it is surreal. I noted on Tuesday that the US had already seen two examples of negative interest-rates and one has deepened in the meantime. US Feds Funds futures have moved as high as 100.025 for the summer of 2021 and 100.05 for the autumn. Now -0.05% is not a lot but these things have a habit of being like a balloon that is about to be inflated.
You may also note that those who have claimed central banks are independent of government have been silent recently.Perhaps they are busy redacting past comments?
Missing for today’s update so far has been the European Central Bank or ECB. This is because it is involved in something of an internal turf war.
The shock at the ruling is palpable in the corridors of power in Berlin as Karlsruhe’s three-month deadline runs down.
Officials are trying to work out a way of satisfying the court without eroding the independence of the ECB, which has kept the euro zone intact through a decade of crises.
One lawmaker described feeling like a bomb disposal expert, “because the Constitutional Court has put an explosive charge under the euro and the EU”. ( Reuters)
Hang on! Someone still thinks central banks are independent…….