The Coronavirus infection rate is growth geometrically. Very predictable since China started offering data. It projects to 16k infected Fri and 88k next Mon Feb 3.
Does the mkt understand this growth rate? Or will it freak ?
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) January 28, 2020
One of the world’s leading authorities on Asia warns the coronavirus outbreak could wreak havoc on the global economy.
— Samuel Smithers (@DrSamSmithers) January 29, 2020
As a reminder, in 2003 when SARS broke #China was a USD1.7trn economy. Today it is USD13.7trn and contributes one-third to global GDP growth. I am not sure why markets have improved overnight. pic.twitter.com/Lfb7GgzZeV
— Richard Yetsenga (@ricyet) January 28, 2020
— Jennifer Ablan (@jennablan) January 29, 2020
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) January 29, 2020
The disruption to global trade the coronavirus is likely to cause is going to be material, perhaps severe. And that will have serious negative consequences for the financial markets, which have been (and is still!) trading at the highest valuations in history. The coronavirus has all the hallmarks of a true Black Swan event.