This little story ties together climate change denial, Europe’s huge push for Renewables and America bending over for opec.
First some background, So since ww2 the world has been addicted to oil and we’ve seen what happens when states have oil and when they don’t. In our current climate the number one stratigic resource is oil and electricity without enough of it we can be brought to our knees, this was first demonstrated durring 1973 oil crisis. Our enemies had us by the balls and there was nothing we could do about it so we bent the knee and let them do their thing to us, they jacked up oil prices and just milked the west of our money, up untill about 15 years ago. We had major breakthrough in drilling shale oil. What this did was allow America to finally start to drill and produce its massive reserves. the technology has rapidly decreased in price so much so that 5 years ago opec panicked and pulled the plug on the oil price to crush the shale oil industry, except this backfired tremendously. All this did was put American capitalism into high gear to make it even cheaper. So here we are today with America about to produce a record oil amount and pretty quickly going to cut out opec to its biggest market.
Europe is in a brutal situation since it basically has no oil has limited reserves and is at the mercy of Russia. So they can’t use this stratagy.
So in not here to discuss the merits of climate change just how it’s been used as a tool in this geo political cold war. Europe is unable to make any oil so they’ve been pushing the climate change hard over there. Strict efficiency rules to cut oil imports and lots of renewable investments. This is working as the price of those renewable is starting to drop quickly and some countries will soon have their power grides completely off of oil and gas and will move to phase 2 which is switching cars to electric.
In North America we are seeing the complete opposite we see climate denial get seeded into our daily life since we have cheap oil at home and we need to grow that industry to get away from the choke hold of the east.
We are currently at the tipping point and it’s going to get messy fast, the next 10 years are going to see massive shifts in geo political power.
USA will cut opec out completely and start suppling Europe directly with oil. Opec will tank the price to try and stop this but America will double down and subsidize the industry further.
Europe will play its role by continuing to get off oil entirely by pushing the climate change agenda.
We’re already seeing the concequnces of this venuzela has almost collapsed and oil production is dropping, this was planed for buy building a pipeline from Canada to Texas to replace the heavy oil. that pipeline is delayed by courts but eventually might be seen as a national security issue when venuzela stops exporting oil entirely. Russia is starting to falter but they are holding on, but eventually their largest market for oil will get taken over by the Americans and the saudies will max out production in a last ditch effort to crash the markets but there will be a tipping point soon. We are a few years away where America and Canada will be able to provide energy to its allies in full and will start sanctioning oil imports from unfriendly countries. We’ll start to see Russia implode and sane with the saudies.
China will be on its own but they are already doing the same thing on their own. They are pushing renewables hard and they are growing their oil investments in friendly countries.