The ECRI leading index is at a 139 week low. -2.6% year over year.

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by AlexPitti

The Italian services PMI fell to 49.2. Italy has the weakest new business formation in 44 months. 2018 GDP growth estimates for Germany have fallen from 2.5% in March to 1.6%.

Economic slowdowns result in more volatility in the stock market as it creates more uncertainty and increases the probability of a recession. As you can see from the chart below, the shaded bars are noted economic slowdowns by the ECRI. When the bars are shaded, there is more volatility. There have already been 2 corrections during this slowdown. Just because stocks recovered from the latest one doesn’t mean we are in the clear as the index is weakening almost every week.

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Leading Index Falls 2.6% (139 Week Low)





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