After bearish sentiment and fear began to grip the market with nearly unprecedented levels this week, and each failed rally on what would normally be described as colossal monetary intervention proved to be just a bump on the road toward complete oblivion, the Friday close began to show itself coming ever nearer. With less than two hours left before the close of the week, markets and traders began to look nervous as if they were going to rollover and puke again from the lack of availability of dramamine at drugstores. Trump’s to speak at 3:30 or so concerning a state of emergency for the coronavirus that has brought the world to a state of panic.
Here he goes, he’s at the podium.. markets start to tank again. S&P down over 2% since he started talking 3 minutes ago. Everybody who’s short the market starts to feel like winners, and they all start believing in their abilities to outsmart the madness of crowds and forecast market events on multiple timescales. Just as soon as the last holdouts FOMO their bearish positions on for the coming crash, and the shorts add to their blossoming gains, the market rips 1.4% in less than a minute.
What did he say?!? The speech sounds generic and pasted from a 2D pastel edu pamphlet circa 83′. Market rallies another 1.5%, moving noticably quicker than the words from the podium. What’s the big deal? Market gaps up half a percent on a single tick. Green basis points flashing growth-rates that remind you of the corona counter ticker you just saw on twitter. Wtf is going on? I can’t close now.. I can’t do anything now…. It’s too fast. When is it going to reverse? Just then you notice the calm demeanor of the lecturn, the parading of CEOs, and you finally get a glimpse into the perspective of someone who could be buying. This isn’t the end of the markets, this guy’s going to get elected again. It’s not a complete shift to communism. Right?? F that, this thing is still screwed, the corona, the zombie companies, the debt. It’s all coming home to roost. Hold those shorts…
Market’s green over 5%.. It was just 10 minutes ago or so you thought we were crashing. This is crazy. +6% People start dumping shorts & puts trying to break even or limit the P/L that just turned negative. Permabulls think we just bottomed so they throw everything they have into the rally. Short margin calls go popping off across desks and platforms all over the world. Absolute panic buying sets in and all those shorts throw in the bloody towel. The massive put holders from the week look shakingly at their losses that were just gains, they liquidate. No time to figure out the next week right now or anything. Just get me out! Can’t you see my tonsils, damn it! Market closes, finally..
Up 9.5% on the day, wtf just happened? Glad I got out of that position before it turned into a bigger loss, bears say.. So glad I got in before the end of the rally, bulls say.. Not knowing that they’re both fk’d… Market’s going to gap down 7% and lay a big fat -18% the next Monday, just in time for the bulls to sell bottom, and the bears to double down on their barely profitable trades they re-entered back at -11%, and then in the midst of complete pandemonium, the market rips & lands us back to end the day at -7%, right where it started. Congratulations, you all played yourself in the biggest stock swing in US history, and lost money on every turn. Typical…
tl;dr Bears/Bulls both fk’d
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