The incoming #recession may materialize at an accelerated pace due to the fact that post-2008, we never really had a recovery. We had anemic, depressed growth at the periphery of the zero bound. Easier to fall from 1-2% than 5-6%.
Banks’ consensus warned about a 2017 -then 2018, then 2019- US recession.
. The wide majority predicted stronger growth in Europe and Japan for 2018 and 2019.
. US Growth estimates up
. Japan and Europe down
“The Eurodollar curve is now inverted between Dec20 and Dec19 for the first time since 2007,” h/t
central banks will never get blamed on the next downturn — they got Trump as the scapegoat
12mo Libor at new high yield last seen in late 2008
— Dividend Master (@DividendMaster) July 16, 2018
yields surge on session w/ 2s10s .261 pic.twitter.com/vjSadUc2aU
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) July 16, 2018
5 year Yields
Despite good inventory data.
– China slowing
– Global growth estimates trimmed
– Rising Saudi output
Oil was artificially high