There’s fiction… and then there’s the January jobs report.
We are told that the economy added 1.2 MILLION jobs last month. This would be hilarious if wasn’t an incredible lie… a lie that is meant to convince the American people that the economy is doing well.
It isn’t.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which produced this monstrosity, should go into creative writing… there at least you’re SUPPOSED to make things up.
The report itself is absurd. If you’re going to craft a garbage report, at least try to make it believable: don’t create jobs in industries that EVERYONE knows are NOT hiring in January.
Case in point, January is notorious for BAD Retail jobs numbers because 90% of retail sales occur between September and the Holidays. Retailers hire a ton of seasonal workers to meet this demand. Then, once the holidays pass, the retail layoffs begin.
And yet, the BLS’s jobs report claims the Retail industry ADDED 61,000 jobs in January. You know, because Retailers are ramping up for the big sales boom in February… which has NEVER happened.
Another glaring data point comes from the Leisure and Hospitality industry.
It, like Retail, ALSO sees a holiday boom as Americans travel more during the holidays. Because of this, the Leisure and Hospitality industry hires tons of seasonal or part-time workers. Then, once the holidays pass, the layoffs begin.
Unless… you’re in the fantasy world of January’s jobs numbers. THEN the Leisure and Hospitality industry hired 161,000 people in January because… well because the report is garbage and was made up via accounting gimmicks.
Again, if you’re going to invent jobs out of thin air… at least try to make it believable.
So where are we really?
Well, if you go by ADP’s jobs numbers, U.S. companies SHED 301,000 employees last month.
If you go by the Labor Department’s official numbers, if you get rid of the population growth numbers which it admits are at best a GUESS, the economy LOST 272,000 jobs last month.
And then there’s the fact that the BLS itself admits that without seasonal revisions (i.e., BS-spreadsheet nonsense), the report would show that 272,000 jobs were LOST in January.
Put another way, the BLS’s accounting gimmicks created 1.4 MILLION jobs out of thin air.
These jobs don’t exist. They’re just a data point created in a spreadsheet by a government bean counter using an algorithm that has no connection to reality.
Does this sound like a great economy to you?
If you don’t believe me, consider that stocks are FORWARD looking.
The index that is most sensitive to the economy is the Russell 2000. Some 30% of the companies in this index are unprofitable… so this index NEEDS the economy to be doing well because the growth counter acts the lack of cash flows.
Note that the Russell 2000 went NOWHERE throughout 2021. And it is now breaking down in a horrible way.
Put another way… you better not believe the garbage data coming out of the BLS. If you do, you’re in for a world or hurt.
The coming bust is going to be life-changing for many people. Most will lose much if not everything. But a small number of investors will generate LITERAL FORTUNES.