The job market is not tight, it's broken. The economy is a mess, and inflation is running wild. t.co/gstRKflbTd
— Dave Collum (We are all truckers) (@DavidBCollum) February 2, 2022
We're fighting the last war. Incomplete recovery after 2008 meant COVID policy stimulus was massive. So this time is different & we're overheating. @martinwolf_ is right to cry foul in this piece, which also sets a new record for number of @IIF charts (3) in a single @FT article. t.co/4xfnEsRzXt pic.twitter.com/SOZTt289v6
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) February 2, 2022
JUST IN – U.S. private payrolls fell by 301,000 for January vs. the estimate for a 200,000 gain, ADP reports.
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) February 2, 2022
Paypal: ''We see a large pull-back in spending, particularly by lower-income consumers''.
For every fiscal sugar rush, there is a bitter fiscal cliff.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 2, 2022
*U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA COULD SEND OIL TO $100: YERGIN
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2022
Things getting pretty serious now in EUR fronts:
TRADERS BRING FORWARD BETS ON 10BPS ECB RATE HIKE TO JULY
This implies the ECB ends QE in June, scrapping the 30bn/month in bond purchases scheduled for Q3.
If Lagarde doesn't pushback, it will be endorsement! pic.twitter.com/0MdMIgbNML
— Rishi Mishra (@aRishisays) February 2, 2022
German 10-year yields are touching the highest since April 2019. pic.twitter.com/jgA5lCsous
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) February 2, 2022
Commodity price changes over the last year…
Coffee: +92%
Natural Gas: +67%
Heating Oil: +64%
WTI Crude: +61%
Gasoline: +59%
Brent Crude +58%
Cotton: +58%
Aluminum: +53%
Copper: +26%
Wheat: +19%
Corn: +17%
Sugar: +13%
Soybeans: +13%
Lumber: +9%
CPI: +7%
Gold: -2%
Silver: -14%— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 2, 2022
it makes this the one to to watch pic.twitter.com/pquIKmtEJw
— MrBlonde (@MrBlonde_macro) February 2, 2022
Euro Area Inflation Unexpectedly Hits Record High One Day Ahead Of ECB Decision t.co/0mlWqjpqQg
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2022
The U.S. economy is about to slam into a wall
- The U.S. economy last year grew at its fastest pace since 1984, but that momentum isn’t carrying into 2022.
- An inventory build fueled most of the second-half growth that put annualized GDP up 5.7% for the year.
- In the first quarter, the economy may not show any gain at all and possibly show a loss in GDP.
- The pandemic, along with declining help from fiscal and monetary policy, will keep growth in check.