by Chris Black
Lviv airport suffered an attack by half a dozen Russian cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea, likely from a Russian submarine. The precision strikes targeted the main airport of Lviv. Odessa, on the shores of the Black Sea, is now heavily fortified by Zelensky regime defenders.
The Lviv missile strikes indicate to me that the Russians feel that they have central and eastern Ukraine firmly in hand. This seems to be the case. The pockets of Zelensky regime resistance are cut off from one another, and they are not being refueled or resupplied, much less relieved.
Therefore, the Lviv attacks would seem to be the beginning of the “softening up“ period of western Ukraine. I would expect a lot more precision strikes across Western Ukraine over the next week to two weeks, while the main Russian armies pacify central and eastern Ukraine.
I would expect that in two weeks or so, the Russians will carry out a major airborne assault on Lviv — likely the largest airborne assault in this entire conflict — and take the city by mid to late April. This is of course assuming that NATO does not interfere in any significant way. If NATO does interfere, then this airborne assault will be sooner, and will use a big chunk of Russian reserves. Also, if NATO forces the issue, then the Russians will be much more aggressive, and much more indiscriminate in their attack on Lviv.
I think the Russians will bypass Odessa altogether, with sporadic missile strikes just to keep the Zelensky Regime forces in check and pinned down there. Since the Russians control the black sea,, and since they control central Ukraine, there is no way for Odessa to be re-supplied. Once Lviv is taken, Odessa will have absolutely no reason to do anything other than surrender.
Once Lviv has fallen, that is the end of the war. Odessa will then surrender without a shot.
So at this time, I think we have another six more weeks of this war.
The latest updates on the invasion of Ukraine:
– Russian forces have struck an area around Lviv airport, the city mayor said.
– Work is underway to find civilians sheltering in a Mariupol theatre following an attack.
– Coveney will fly to Poland today. t.co/OakLNlOzg4
— TheJournal.ie (@thejournal_ie) March 18, 2022
Putin appears at big rally as troops press attack in Ukraine t.co/087U4YbrKb
— Susan Dumoulin (@Zanny_D5) March 18, 2022
Here’s the result of the Kalibr missile strike at the place of deployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Nikolaev at the Palyanitsya base
In the morning there were more than 30 killed, now the figure have gone for 50.
Photos of the destruction and the dead Ukrainian soldiers keep coming (Can’t show them here) so far 50+ dead as a result of the 🇷🇺 Kalibr missile strike at the place of deployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Nikolaev at the Palyanitsya base pic.twitter.com/3ndXVFuCaQ
— M.E (@Z_Marconie) March 18, 2022
Kremlin reacts to Biden’s harsh statement about Putin:
“Given the irritability of Mr. Biden, his fatigue & sometimes forgetfulness, this leads to aggressive statements. We will not get into sharp assessments so as not to cause more aggression.”