- There is no end in sight to coronavirus, it will almost certainly get worse every single day for the next month, if not much longer.
- OPEC+ fell apart, sparking a price war and Saudi Arabia appears to fighting some kind of internal coup. Oil is already in a proper crash, down +20% today and 54% since early Jan.
- There is no inspiring leadership anywhere. The US response is bordering on disaster with a President that appears to have no idea what’s at stake.
- Socially and politically, there are vulnerabilities and stresses in many countries to say the least.
- Bonds are already a full-scale panic, and bonds are usually right. The US 30-year just fell below 1%.
- Equity markets are still way overvalued, particularly in the US
- A global recession is likely
Is this not the greatest recipe for a 1987-style market panic that you’ve ever seen? Sure, some of this is already priced in but the Fed cut rates 50 bps and kneecapped Bernie Sanders last week to try and keep the party going but none of that really helped. The Fed can’t fix this and the psychology of the market has turned from BTFD to sell-the-rallies.
All that, said, usually when someone tells you to panic, it’s time to buy. But I just don’t see it. This has to get much worse before it gets better.