1) The next bear will be the most severe.
2) The core of the market never recovered from Q4, 18 selloff t.co/Z8zyJDxLxi
— Anil (@anilvohra69) February 18, 2020
We live what is probably the most surprising bull market in history. Excess of demand-side policies, massive liquidity injections, and low rates have zombified the economy and driven debt to all-time highs, while the economic slowdown is evident.t.co/1GaZwuAOI1
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) February 19, 2020
"I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now." – @ScottMinerd
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) February 18, 2020
#recession … China $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition#FX #RMB $CNY $USDCNY#PBOC forced to devalue the #Yuan even though it will make essential #imports (pork, soybeans, etc.) more expensive and despite virtually all #exports being shut down thanks to the #coronavirus… 👇 t.co/SQsuWugues
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) February 19, 2020
@CassFreight Jan shipment volumes dropped 9.4% vs 2019 as the index posted its lowest absolute reading in roughly 3 years, the steepest y/y decline since 2009. This follows sluggish end to 2019, where many blamed Dec’s weakness on holidays.
Clearly more than seasonals. pic.twitter.com/qJk8wpnl3N
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) February 18, 2020
Maybe it needs $1.4tn comp to sound alarm bell: Apple warns that quarterly rev would fall short of $63-67bn guidance it gave few wks ago b/c of supply&demand shock in China. Ripple effects from coronavirus may become apparent, hit mkts in complacency mode. t.co/xMMP33c52G pic.twitter.com/3EwZfaFwuM
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 18, 2020
Seriously, the major bubble this time is in corporate credit: from IG to HY to CLO’s all of it. When there’s a recession that dam will burst and people will lose their ass in a flood of no bids. Recovery rates will be among the worst in history. But until the recession: party!
— GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) February 19, 2020
Citi upgraded gold target to $1,700 in next 6-12 mo
— Olivia Voz (@TheVoz4Real) February 19, 2020
The global financial system seems to be gearing up for massive actions by the global central banks in an effort to calm the potential headwinds that a deflationary fallout would force upon the world.
Central banks in the developed world resorted to many actions, one after the other, to prevent another Great Depression.
…that good news masked a development that suggests Corporate America is beginning what could be a painful adjustment, and one that could put a damper on future stock returns.
Hong Kong is heading for its first back-to-back annual recessions on record, as the coronavirus shutdown cripples an economy already battered by months of political unrest. The jobless rate rose to 3.4% in January for a fourth straight month of increases.
The January Cass Freight Shipping Index is more bad news for the global economy.