Look at what is happening to the world’s major shipping routes right now.
Hormuz has already been hammered.
On Sunday, zero commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, compared with more than 130 ships a day before the Iran war. Bab el Mandeb is also coming under pressure, with Houthi attacks threatening another major route into the Red Sea.
Now look at Taiwan.
Taiwan just held its first anti blockade drill involving its navy and coast guard, practicing how to escort merchant ships, clear mines and keep ports supplied during a Chinese blockade. Taiwan even simulated internet disruptions during the exercise.
China’s response was not exactly calming.
Beijing called Taiwan’s military drills a “wasteful charade” and said the PLA would remain on high alert. At the same time, China conducted a naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
This is why I think the bigger story isn’t simply whether China invades Taiwan.
A blockade or serious disruption could be enough.
The Taiwan Strait carries an enormous amount of global trade. It is one of the most important shipping corridors on Earth.
So look at the dominoes.
Hormuz gets disrupted.
Bab el Mandeb comes under attack.
And now Taiwan is actively preparing for the possibility that China could try to choke off its maritime supply lines.
One disrupted strait is a crisis.
Two starts becoming a global supply problem.
Three would be something else entirely.
Energy gets more expensive.
Shipping insurance jumps.
Ships take longer routes.
Delivery times increase.
Factories start waiting for components.
Semiconductor supply becomes a geopolitical issue.
And companies that built their businesses around cheap, reliable global shipping suddenly have to pay a lot more for both.
The really uncomfortable part is that these chokepoints don’t need to be completely closed.
They just need to become too dangerous or too expensive for normal commercial traffic.
That’s already happening in Hormuz.
And Taiwan is now openly training for the same type of problem.
I’m not saying China is about to invade Taiwan.
I’m saying something more important.
The global economy has been built around a handful of narrow waterways that everyone assumed would remain open.
Now we’re watching multiple ones come under pressure at the same time.
If Taiwan becomes the next domino, the economic shock won’t begin when the first missile is fired.
It begins when shipping companies start asking whether they can safely send a $200 million cargo ship through the waterway at all.
And once that question gets asked often enough, the price of everything starts changing.
This is how a geopolitical crisis turns into an inflation crisis.
Not financial advice. This is market commentary and geopolitical analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.