by Robert Carbery
While history points to likely Democratic victories in the upcoming midterm elections, the numbers show a very different story that does not bode well for the left’s chances in peeling back the right’s hold on power next year.
Five recent poll numbers (yes, I know, polls can only mean so much and are many times, wrong, though other times speak to very real trends underway) and recent fundraising statistics reveal a troubling reality for the Democrats.
First off, 43% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll put out last Sunday. Jobs continue to be added at healthy rates and for all of Trump’s faults, he knows business and can likely steer the economy with more than enough competence. Employers have added 863,000 jobs during Trump’s first five full months in office and though a recession is possibly to come during his tenure as president, he will still govern a nation emphasizing employment growth via business creation buoyed by deregulation.
Second, the Democrats still do not stand for anything other than being the anti-Trump party. They have no agenda, no message, and give voters little reason to vote for them. Only 37% of Americans say the Democratic Party “stands for something,” while 52% say it just stands against Trump, per the same ABC/WaPo poll. The left is leaderless at the moment in the post-Obama age and with Hillary Clinton in denial about why she lost the party is still not coming to terms with last year’s upset and are therefore making no moves to remedy it.
While there is still plenty of time left until the 2018 midterms, the Democrats’ voters still lack sufficient enthusiasm. The difference between people who are voting to oppose Trump and those voting to support Trump is 4 points, compared to 10 points opposing Obama in 2014 and 14 points opposing Bush in 2006. Voter enthusiasm seems identical for the pro-Trump and anti-Trump wings, however, the Trump crowd are the ones that show up to vote, despite the media’s attempt to tell a different story.
Americans’ perceptions of the Dems also has changed little over the last 12 months. Even during the Trump age, 48% of American voters have a negative view of the Democratic Party right now, according to a recent Bloomberg News poll. 49% in December saw them in a negative light and 47% last August. And they don’t appear to be making any significant changes to alter that perception.
Trump’s base is still strong and will surely remain that way throughout his presidency. The support among Republicans matches the third-highest approval among a president’s own party during the first half of the first year of a new president in more than 60 years, per Gallup.
Furthermore, recent fundraising trends spell further doom for the Democrats. The Republican National Committee unveiled record fundraising in May, announcing $10.8 million raised in May, a new post-presidential record, and $61.9 million overall in 2017.
The Democratic National Committee on the other hand, had their worst fundraising month since 2003, taking in only $4.29 million.
So Democrats should buckle up and change their ways fast if they are to make any difference in Washington. Otherwise, Trump will have a Republican majority in both houses of Congress for the next eight years. And Democrats will remain on their downward spiral until the next presidential election.
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by Robert Carbery