The real reason the market is disconnected from the economy and why it will keep going up to ATH.

by clmohn

First of all, if you say that everything is priced in or it’s forward looking then you are a retard.

You are the reason the market keeps rocketing up and we are headed for all time high’s.

New retail investors working from home, retired, or collecting unemployment. It’s not fund rebalancing and it’s not all about the FED printing machine.

Here’s why.

+30 million unemployed + 90 million retired + 60 million working from home = 180 million at home bored 

A lot of these assholes have been watching everyone else make hand over fist on the 10 year bull run because who the wants to buy at the top just to watch it tank… except it never tanked.

Well it tanked and here is finally their chance….. Combine this scenario with the follow perfect storm of unprecedented bored ass Americans and unlimited flows into the stock market.

THE FOLLOWING ITEMS ARE TURBOCHARGING OUT OF THE MARKET AND RAPING YOUR SPY PUTS.

  1. Casino Gambling Degenerates: $100 Billion Per year
  2. Sports Betting Degenerates: $150 Billion per Year
  3. Student Loan Deferments: $70.4 Billion (4 months)
  4. Stim Trump Checks: $157 Billion (one time payment)
  5. $600 per week unemployment checks: $250 Billion (4 months)
  6. Mortgage Forbearance: $25 Billion (4 months)
  7. 401k Withdraws so far: $60 Billion
  8. America’s cash savings accounts: $250 Billion
  9. Tax Refunds (perfect timing and nothing to spend it on): $22.5 Billion Dollars
  10. Lockdown Spending Reduction (traveling, entertainment, etc): $100 Billion (4 months)

That is 1 TRILLION DOLLARS of liquidity that’s typically allocated differently. Obviously, this is not all injected into the market, but I would guess a significant portion of it is because of the 180 million people now at home with access to free trading platforms.

If you don’t believe me, then dig thru the recent 10K’s of TD ameritrade, E-trade, Schawb, IB, etc.

TD-Ameritrade: New client assets: $45 Billion. 608k new accounts, 425k accounts in march alone

E-Trade: $17.9 Billion new client assests, 363k new accounts, 230k accounts in march

Schwab: $73 Billion new client assets, 609k new accounts, 280k accounts in march

ROBINHOOD: A ton of new client assets. Feb 19th: Accounts in different stock positions = 16 million, April 25th: Accounts in different stock positions = 30 million. Thats almost double in 2 months.

I’m too lazy to list the sources, but it’s all fairly accurate, if you want proof then just assume I’m lying and get out of here.

TLDR: A perfect storm of people at home bored, unprecedented available cash flows available, degenerate gamblers needing a fix, and free trading platforms have injected BILLIONS of dollars into the market and it will not stop until people are forced kicking and screaming back into work. Also, Casino’s are absolutely f*cked, once these gamblers get a taste of actually GAINING money by pumping up the market will never go back to Vegas again.

Puts on all Casino stocks, 6/19 SPY 300C

BTW, I’m actually one of these assholes “working” from home still getting my fat paychecks and I bet you are too.

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.