The recession clock is ticking faster.
5-yr vs. 3-m spread now inverted for almost 8 months!
Only happened 4 other times:
At the peak of the housing bubble.
In the midst of the tech & ‘73-4 inflationary bust.
5 months prior to the ‘80 recession.This cycle looks done. pic.twitter.com/SvorKdGGGt
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 3, 2019
Deteriorating economic indicators are near an inflection point.
Faltering leadership adds to the problem.
Industrials, financials, health care, energy, materials.
All peaked a long time ago.A recession and bear market could be around the corner.t.co/bGHzHjE5sB
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 3, 2019
Must be just another coincidence.
This survey across households with higher education just started to tip over.
Yet, stocks remain near record levels.
Incredible how correlated this indicator has been with the changes in the business cycle. pic.twitter.com/URNbRC6dPV
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 1, 2019
“This is an economy that never really fully recovered from the financial crisis .. Central banks .. can try to paper over this reality by generating asset reflation, but .. this has only exacerbated already-extreme inequalities in wealth.” – @GluskinSheffInc
(chart via Deutsche) pic.twitter.com/xgEI0bpJbJ
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 3, 2019
India cut rates for the 5th time this year, 25 bps move to 5.15%. Global Central Bank update… pic.twitter.com/QJmZ5bhHDF
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 4, 2019
This is the lowest reading since Q1 2009 when the Measure was at 30.
World’s 2nd Fastest-Growing Major Economy Cut Rates Five Times This Year
The decision came against a backdrop of weaker growth, a resurgence of financial stability risks and a surprise fiscal stimulus in the form of a recent corporate tax cut.
Watch this. 👇
The European banking sector is where the global crisis, most likely, starts. t.co/utont6F4pq
— Tuomas Malinen (@mtmalinen) October 2, 2019