The sharp rise in the Citi Economic Index could be another recovery head fake.

via Michael Kantrowitz, CFA:

It’s not being confirmed by Bloomberg’s Leading Indicator Surprise index. When these two series diverge, Citi’s surprise index has pointed investors the wrong way.

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Surprises are important, but more so when it comes from leading economic data. Stay defensive. $XLU $XLP $TLT

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Citi’s surprise index has too much lagging economic data, making it an inconsistent investment tool. “X” marks the sort on data that is old-news lagging.

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