This doesn’t end when your country flattens the curve. It ends when EVERY country flattens the curve. If magically all of the US infections disappeared tomorrow and we opened up all of our businesses again, coronavirus would find its way back into the country and we would have to start over.
Until then, America must shutter its businesses and homes.
As a result:
People are no longer traveling. Companies like Uber and Lyft take a hit. Airlines lose business. Cruise industries falter. Regions that rely on tourism lose business. People lose their jobs. These people can no longer afford vacations. Entertainment industries suffer due to tighter budgeting of Americans. Luxury brands suffer. The list goes on, the cycle repeats and worsens.
Even after the US recovers domestically, I believe that developing countries that produce goods for the United States (many of which are only just starting to accelerate in COVID 19 cases) will soon be impacted, which will further damage the US economy.
Given all of this, I don’t see any way that the economy does not suffer tremendously more than it already has.
I believe that stimulus bills like the ones that Trump is proposing will help in the short term, but even after all of this is over, it will take time for people to regain confidence to travel, eat out, attend concerts, etc.
Am I missing anything here? I want to hear from the people that disagree with my hypothesis.
JUST IN: U.S. retail sales fell in February, indicating the main driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending, had begun to slow even before coronavirus containment measures began rippling through the economy t.co/wW13mCNDEo pic.twitter.com/0oyQeATY5H
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 17, 2020
"Some analysts think that the second-quarter GDP could contract somewhere between 3 and 5%…I caution those who think that there’s going to be a V-shaped recovery, and that the United States economy is going to come roaring back in the third quarter."t.co/K2Cg5Ou3hG
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 17, 2020
"Half of small businesses in the country have enough cash to survive for a few weeks, according to one study." t.co/4YEfIsmMQo
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 18, 2020
U.S. MEDIA: 47 PENTAGON EMPLOYEES INFECTED WITH CORONA VIRUS
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 17, 2020