MacroVoices probably my favorite podcast has an amazing interview with grant Williams.
This was on social risk; ie political extremeism. From the description: Erik asks Grant if we in a cyclical bear market and where he feels treasury bond yields are headed next. They discuss tensions between China and Taiwan, the rise of global populism and the future of France and Europe. Grant shares his update on how things are developing on Australian Real Estate and the risks of a recession. They end with touching on gold and the U.S. dollar.
Above is the pdf
Erik: The other big one is bond yields.
We had so many smart people, whether it was Jeff Gundlach – our mutual friend Julian Brigden had told us, look, if you see a break of that 100-month moving average on the 30-year Treasury bond, that’s a trend that’s been in play since the mid-1980s. It’s a major signal. Sure enough, we got that signal.
A lot of people were saying it’s the break above 3.12% or so on the 10-year. We got that signal. And so many people said, once you see that break, there’s no turning back. You’re never going to see Treasury yields this low again for 30 or 40 years. And, of course, it took 30 or 40 days before we hit, seeing a reversal of that. And, as we’re speaking – what now is a week ago for our listeners – we’re back in between that 2.60% and 2.80% range again, sort of chomping around here.
Where do you think we’re headed? Are Lacy Hunt and Raoul Pal about to be proven right that maybe we really are headed below that 1.34%, which, so far, has been the low yield on the 10-year? Or is this just a temporary pullback before Gundlach and Brigden and others are proven right?
Grant: This is the really interesting thing to me. This, to me, is where – when people say where is all the damage that’s been done by the last 10 years of monetary policy? And this, to me, is exactly where you’re going to figure out what’s happened. The short answer is I think they’re both right. And I think, in a normally functioning market, I think Jeff and Julian and the guys that are calling for inflationary pressures and higher yields are absolutely correct.