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S&P Global Services Survey Alert! US economy slows sharply amid renewed downtrend in demand as PMI falls to 51.6 in June vs. 53.4 in May. According to the survey, inflation is forcing consumers to cut back on goods (not services) and interest rates are causing concern of a recession.

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Chances of global recession nearing 50% – Citigroup

June 23 (Reuters) – Citigroup is forecasting a near 50% probability of a global recession, as central banks rush to raise interest rates to stamp out inflation that has been partly fueled by the impact of the Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recession is an “increasingly palpable risk” for the economy, Citigroup analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday, while assessing the likely trajectory for global growth over the next 18 months.

“The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth, and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%,” the analysts said.

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