#SP500 Long term picture. This crisis is far from over! Debt levels must come down before we move into #Kondratiev's Spring. Monetary Reset needed at some point! First final phase of #Deflation – then #Stagflation. #Equities will bottom at much lower levels. Take care! pic.twitter.com/OmQOIVo5co
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) April 26, 2020
With 28% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q1 GAAP earnings down 29% year-over-year. $SPX pic.twitter.com/7XSa4fCY6E
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 26, 2020
Sentix S&P500 sentiment (strategic bias i.e. more of a medium term view) continues to fall… pic.twitter.com/HmwUplX8aL
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) April 26, 2020
"If consumption can’t recover in April small cos may go bankrupt," notes Liu. "Problem is not availability of capital but expectations of future demand. Some cos are not willing to keep on operating, bc if they do they will lose $”@chengevelynt.co/ZLTarSnzVN
— China Beige Book (@ChinaBeigeBook) April 26, 2020
It is very hard to time volatility spikes (lasting in weeks)…. but it is very easy to time volatility regimes (lasting in years)
Volatility is connected to the debt de-leveraging cycle pic.twitter.com/zea5JqlcSY
— Christopher Cole (@vol_christopher) April 27, 2020
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The economic pressure of the coronavirus has led to a greater demand for loans, although it’s less clear whether people can actually get them. And if they do, some analysts note risk levels will increase.
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Given the scale of unmet needs, more economists are calling for a targeted cash payout to poorer households.
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If consumption does not recover soon, some analysts expect more struggling small businesses will go under, leading to job losses.
BEIJING — Demand for consumer loans is picking up in China, especially among the less affluent, highlighting a group that some say could use more support during the coronavirus-induced economic downturn.
The disease, officially called Covid-19, emerged late last year in the Chinese city of Wuhan. The virus has since spread rapidly around the world, killing more than 183,000 people, including over 4,600 in China.
While the coronavirus’ outbreak has stalled within the country, China is still trying to recover from the economic shock of weeks-long shutdowns, both domestically and now from export destinations.
Official and third-party data show that China’s poorest households are the hardest hit. In the first quarter, prices rose more in rural areas than cities. But spending dropped off less as necessities consumed a greater proportion of incomes. For migrant workers who still had jobs, the average monthly salary dropped nearly 8% to about $525. Economists estimate tens of millions had not returned to work by the end of March.
The economic pressure has led to a greater demand for loans, although it’s less clear whether people can actually get them. And if they do, some analysts note risk levels will increase.
#SP500 Long term picture. This crisis is far from over! Debt levels must come down before we move into #Kondratiev's Spring. Monetary Reset needed at some point! First final phase of #Deflation – then #Stagflation. #Equities will bottom at much lower levels. Take care! pic.twitter.com/OmQOIVo5co
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) April 26, 2020
Reviving America after Covid-19 will take years, not months