This feels a lot like late-January 2020

by CPAyeLmao

QQQ is at ATH, multiples are expanding, and autists are calling to buy MSFT 200 calls.

Now, I’m not a ūüĆą¬†ūüźĽ,¬†but I’d be remiss not to point out how similar the market and general news cycle are to earlier in the year – just replace the Tesla surge with Zoom and you have an almost perfect parallel. Remember when Australia was burning and everyone thought we would declare war on Iran? Feels like a lifetime ago.

But beyond the similarities in civil unrest, we’re also seeing¬†dramatic upticks¬†in reported coronavirus cases. This will probably become significantly worse as social distancing restrictions are reduced and protests continue. I mean, lets be honest – most people have the attention-span of goldfish, and the coronavirus has already (mostly) slipped out of the mainstream news cycle. Yeah, protesters are wearing masks, but does¬†this¬†look¬†like¬†proper¬†social distancing to you? Add to this the fact that the largest of these protests are taking place in cities that were already considered¬†epicenters of outbreaks. It’s like as soon as media attention shifted, everyone¬†conveniently forgot¬†that we’re in the¬†midst of a global pandemic.¬†Ironically, I bet many of the folks participating in closely compacted protests are the same ones who would chastise you for not following proper “social distancing” a month or two ago; but I digress.

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I just don’t see a reality where we don’t see a resurgence in cases and the need for a second quarantine. It certainly fits the narrative that there will be a second deadlier wave, to mirror the Spanish Flu. Add to this the parallel in media coverage of the virus between now and January, where back then everybody knew about it, but it was dismissed as a China problem (Wuhan virus anybody?) or “just the flu”.

I hope to God I’m wrong, but the narrative and parallels are almost too compelling.

tldr: will probably put some money in deep OTM QQQ or SPY puts for Aug/Sep. Idk…


Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


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