This is how a central bank manufactures stagflation. Watch the euro forward curve roll over as the growth bill comes due.

The ECB is hiking rates to fight an energy shock. Higher rates do not produce a single barrel of oil.

Europe's 2y2y forward rates ripped from near zero in 2022 to roughly 3.5%, chasing a supply spike the central bank cannot tighten away. Citadel Securities says they are capped… pic.twitter.com/IwcKXR7Itd

— Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) September 15, 2026

Anyone else see a theme?

US10Y >5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007

US30Y >5.4%, HIGHEST SINCE 2004

JAPAN 10Y =3%, HIGHEST SINCE 1996

UK10Y >5.4%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007

FRANCE 10Y >4.5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2008

GERMANY 10Y =3.5%, HIGHEST SINCE 2009

— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) September 15, 2026