Thoughts on the Canadian Market

by warzog

With NAFTA agreement looming and Canada clearly going to have their trade surplus pulled back or face major auto tariffs, where do you guys see the Canadian market and dollar going?

Energy industry – Bearish

Manufacturing – Bearish

Finance industry – Big bear

Real estate – Biggest bear (especially in plump markets like Vancouver and Toronto)

 

As someone who lives in Canada let me give you my take.

For real estate, I’m trying to buy a single family house in Vancouver right now, and I can confirm that the market is very dead. Pricing is on the way down for sure, but I’m not sure how you can personally profit off this through public securities markets being a foreign investor.

That being said, I work in commercial real estate and the market is still very frothy. There seems to be a lot of excess capital from the pension/life co/family offices that are looking to find a home. This may a case of yield-chasing by the big financials which could burn them, hard to say that his point. Foreign capital from Iran and China has vanished pretty much entirely. Fundamental demand appears very strong at this point in time, at least in Vancouver. Reports I hear from the GTA is similar, but NAFTA will weigh on industrial demand. Calgary is in the shitter, now is a good time if you want to pick up an empty office building.

All i hear is bad news about energy. Glad i don’t work in that sector. Mining is on the upswing now though after 10 years in the tank.

Banks have an oligopoly so they will make money no matter what happens. It’s a very different market environment than in the states.

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