Today’s Recession Indicator: “Europe’s And US Bond Volatility Grinding To A Halt”

by confoundedinterest

European bond volatility (according to the Merrill Lynch 3-month EUR option volatility estimate) has plunged to the lowest level on record.

dyingvol

A similar chart for the US bond market is the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate for 3-months shows exactly the same thing. The US bond market is grinding to a halt.

move3

Note that the US MOVE 3-month estimate hit a low in May 2007, just ahead of The Great Recession of 2007-2009.

Alarm!

 

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