Bloomberg dollar index rises to highest since July 2020… The Fed fears stagflation… Too early for recession talk? This Fed model doesn’t think so…

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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops to 10-Year Low on Inflation Fears

See also  I think OCC's report provides an expectation for a +100bps (+1%) interest rate hike. All of their models showing smallest largest losses for banks will occur when +1% increase in interest rates. Except for the big boys with >$10B, which would lose less with +300bps (+3%) in interest rate.

FOMC Minutes Show The Fed Fears Stagflation, Suggest Taper Pace Could Accelerate

FOMC Minutes Summary: Inflation just doesn’t seem to be dissipating even as the labor markets heal at a rapid rate. This had led some participants said faster taper could be warranted. There was also recognition that the labor force participation rate could be “structurally lower.”

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The Fed Is “Very Much Behind the Curve’ on Inflation: Wharton’s Siegel

The Federal Reserve must speed up its fight against inflation, says Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. The Fed now plans to finish tapering its bond purchases around the middle of next year, and some economists expect rate hikes shortly thereafter.

UMich Sentiment Holds At 10-Year Lows, Inflation Expectations At 13 Year High

After plunging to decade-lows in preliminary data, analysts expected practically no bounce at all for the final November print of University Of Michigan’s Sentiment survey, but in fact the data did bounce a little.

US Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Suffer First Back-To-Back Drop Since April 2020

After disappointingly dropping 0.3% MoM in September, analysts expected Durable Goods Orders to rebound in preliminary October data. They were wrong.


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