Pay attention here, we just witnessed trend breaks on some index charts and these breaks are coming at a key time and could spell more trouble to come.
Speaking of key time, who says twitter trolls are good for nothing. If anything, they sometime can serve as contrarian sentiment checks. I sensed markets were reaching a potential turning point over the last few days as I got my usual “perma bear” hate trolling on twitter. I tend to get this a lot near key market pivot points.
I got the obsessive perma bear hate labels last year in the run-up to Lying Highs. Oddly enough I didn’t get any of the perma bear hate in December when markets were plunging 20%. And ironically I didn’t get perma bear hate when I was bullish in December. But once $SPX reached 2940 and they came back.
Yes trolls on twitter are rather selective and like to distort for their own reasons. It’s silly of course as objective readers actually know me not to be a perma bear. I can’t speak to the psychology and motivation of trolls on the internet. Perhaps they secretly love me lol, after all some have been dedicating years of their lives to trolling me. Look, I don’t have time for nonsense and hate by people who don’t know me and have never even met me.
Yes, I’m posting analyses that are critical of market structures, central banks, and macro structural issues. And I stand by my criticisms. I outline my rationale with facts and figures.
I put out some of my analytical work publicly. When I favor the short side I outline the rationale for that. When I favor the long side I outline my rationale for that. I outline risk levels, I share some of what I see in charts. Don’t like my rationale? Don’t read it. Don’t like me? Don’t follow me. Simple.
And yes there will be times when I’m wrong or I’m early. And there are lessons on being wrong and I’ve outlined them.
Indeed my philosophy on my work:
I may not always be right, nobody is, but my analysis is always backed up with data, facts and a thought out rationale that strives to balance technicals & macro.
Above all: Keeping it real. Always.
That's my commitment to my follows, our clients & myself.
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 22, 2019
Take April. April has not been a great month for me. Had a great January, an ok February and March, but April has been a paint drying watching exercise. So what? Nobody ever experienced a drawdown?
Let the traders who’ve never had a challenging time in markets raise their hands and step forward.
Currently I’m on the record for not liking the bullish side while recognizing the upside risk and I’ve outlined my rationale for that.
Some of the charts I’ve posted pertain to wedge patterns. I’ve outlined that they can keep going and going until something breaks, then it gets interesting. And it may be getting interesting now.
That’s a clean break. Does that mean no more new highs? Not necessarily as we saw in August/September new highs were still squeezed out, but it’s a warning sign especially since this rally remains technically uncorrected. But without larger confirmations the Combustion case is not off the table yet.
Uptrend broken, 2 failed attempts to get back above the January 2018 highs. One of the lower gaps filled today. That’s now the third rejection from this price zone and risks a major topping pattern.
Another wedge break in context of a notable uncorrected chart with a failure to make new highs at this stage.
What a pattern. Also seeing a wedge break and a failure to sustain new highs. I’ve questioned the sustainability of new highs just this weekend in Get Real.
I guess that made me perma bear worthy. Oh it’s easy to criticize and hate on twitter. Especially when you don’t put out any analytical work of your own in front of tens of thousands of people. It’s easy to distort and be selective.
And it’s easy to hate on social media from the safety and comfort of your own home. A behavior most people wouldn’t engage in in real life for there would be consequences.
Khloe Kardashian actually had a good point on that the other day:
“Social media has made many of you comfortable with disrespecting people and not getting punched in the mouth for it”.
We live in a complex diverse world. We have all to decide how we want to spend our limited time.
I have no time, desire or interest in engaging in perma narratives or hate. My focus is on quality work. That’s what motivates me. Let others be motivated by hate.
Don't be a perma bull or perma bear, rather just be perma smart
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 26, 2019
And so far May is much better than April. Thank you very much