(Bloomberg) — A decline in consumer expectations suggests the U.S. economy is in recession even though employment and wage growth indicate otherwise, according a new study co-authored by a former Bank of England policy maker.
In the research dated Thursday, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College — who set interest rates at the BOE during the 2008 financial crisis — and Alex Bryson of University College London say that consumer expectations indexes from the Conference Board and University of Michigan tend to predict American downturns 18 months in advance.
The Conference Board’s gauge of expectations dropped in September to the lowest since November last year, although the University of Michigan’s gained.
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