by Ian Shilling
The Russian aim is to win by destroying the Ukrainian Army – not by taking major cities like Kiev or by destroying civilian infrastructure, which would incur major civilian casualties.
Kiev will surrender when there is no army left to defend it, or when whatever military forces remain surrender because have run out of supplies and can no longer fight.
The Russians are gradually degrading the Ukrainian military by destroying ammunition dumps, supply lines, military bases, artillery, tanks and other equipment.
Russian aircraft bombing sorties have increased to 300 a day. These are now being carried out at night. The US has supplied Stinger anti-aircraft missiles but not night vision equipment needed to use them in the dark.
Long range precision artillery and missile strikes have increased.
The Ukrainian military on the front lines needs tons and tons of supplies every day – ammunition, fuel, food, spare parts etc. Every day their supplies are being reduced and degraded. When they run out of supplies, they will no longer be able to fight. Most of the regular Ukrainian Army and Conscripts will surrender when their position is hopeless. The Nazis like the Azov Battalion will not and will have to be killed.
The Ukrainian Army have already requested their large force of 60,000 plus men on the Donbass front lines (half the entire regular Ukrainian Army) be retreated back to the Dnieper river as they risk being cut off from supplies. Zelensky has refused saying such a retreat “would be bad for PR”.
The Russians had hoped that an initial Blitzkrieg aimed at Kiev and rapid advance elsewhere would force Zelensky to surrender within a few days. This was Plan A. Plan A has failed.
The Russians are now operating Plan B.
Plan B is to gradually destroy and degrade Ukraine’s military without risking major casualties from further major advances.
The Russians initially wasted quite a lot of men and equipment by advancing into Ukrainian strongholds with small forces and without any artillery bombardment to clear the way. Several of these small forces got ambushed by Ukrainian forces that were at least as large. The Russians have now stopped doing this.
All current Russian front-line positions are easily re-supplied being only 40 to 75 miles from Russian territory and Russia having complete control of the skies.
The exception is the relatively small Russian force West of the Dnieper and Kiev, near Irpin – which have to be resupplied via Belarus. This force has stopped trying to do meaningful advances and is now just holding ground.
The Russians have warned that any attempts to resupply Ukraine will be treated as legitimate military targets.
Sweden and Germany have just promised to supply a further 7,000 anti tank weapons – but how will these be able to be delivered?
Russia has satellites monitoring anything crossing the border or happening in nearby NATO military bases or ports in Poland, Germany, or Sweden (now that Sweden has ceased to be neutral).
Trucks containing military equipment will be bombed as soon as they cross the border into Ukraine.
Russia controls the Black Sea so Ukraine cannot be supplied from there.
Zelensky has further problems as Poland has threatened to invade Western Ukraine with a “Peacekeeping Force” in an effort to recapture Galicia and Lvov which were lost to Poland with Roosevelt’s and Churchill’s settlement with Stalin at the end of WW2.
The Nazis that Poland would re-absorb from this area if it succeeded would be a wider problem for the whole of the EU. Russia would have no reason to prevent it and would be more than happy to see the Lvov Nazi problem end up in Poland and not whatever is left of a rump state of Ukraine West of the Dnieper.
The Hungarians are also getting in on the act, suggesting that the ethnic Hungarians currently living in Transcarpathia, Western Ukraine, and who have been abused for 8 years by the Lvov and Kiev Neo Nazis since the 2014 Coup, might want to rejoin Hungary, and not be a part of the rump state of Ukraine.
This Russian Plan B strategy will minimize Ukrainian civilian casualties, Ukrainian military casualties, Russian military casualties and losses of Russian military equipment.
Except for Nazi militias – the Nazis will not be spared. Russia has specifically stated that its aims are to De-Militarize and De-Nazify Ukraine.
This slow burn strategy might have further benefits in causing divisions between Zelensky and Poland, Zelensky and Hungary, Poland and Hungary, to say nothing of the economic impact and upheaval that 5 or 10 million impoverished Western Ukrainian refugees will cause in the EU.
Romania might even get in on the act against and Zelensky.
Roma people and others are currently being systematically tortured and abused in Lvov and Kiev by Azov Nazis by being tied to poles and trees, stripped of their trousers/skirts and whipped with birch and belts or whatever else comes to hand, and disfigured with green dye. There are scores of such videos going viral on Social Media – even the totalitarian Facebook and Twitter censorship brigades are unable to prevent the reports and videos getting out.
This plan B will take several weeks at least to work. It could take 6 months.
Russia is in no hurry.
The longer it goes on for, the bigger the divisions within the EU that will accrue.
This plan will work as long as Russia can supply sufficient bombs, shells, missiles and spare parts for its planes, artillery, and tanks. I’m pretty sure the factories making these items are currently working overtime and additional further production is now planned.
Russia has plenty of oil and food so refuelling the planes and tanks or feeding the troops shouldn’t be a problem
with short supply lines now that the Russian military knows what to expect in the next several weeks or few months.
It will work as long as the Neocon Globalist crazies in Washington and Whitehall do not instigate all out war with Russia – which would lead to Nuclear Armageddon and the end of human civilization.
Whatever crazy politicians might say in Washington, Westminster, Paris, Berlin, or Brussels, the Oligarchs which control them like the Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Soros, Zuckerberg, and Gates don’t want Nuclear Armageddon and the end of Human Civilization – they want controlled destruction which will kill maybe billions of people while still allowing them to live in absolute luxury.
Meanwhile the desperate Neo Nazis and Zelensky will continue to manufacture #FalseFlag attacks for the benefit of the lickspittle Western media which asks no questions and pushes disinfo propaganda 24 hours every day.