The IMF began reviewing Ukraine’s $8.1 billion lending program today. Approval of the combined second and third reviews could release approximately $1.67 billion. But this is only one piece of a much larger financing problem. The IMF approved the four-year program in February, and Ukraine has already received about $2.2 billion. Now Kyiv is preparing its 2027 budget while facing a projected $70 billion financing shortfall. The economy contracted 0.7% year over year in the third quarter, and the central bank expects a 0.4% contraction for 2026. Damage to energy infrastructure, agriculture and steel production is cutting into revenue. The IMF review also matters because other international lenders use the program to assess whether Ukraine’s economic commitments remain on track. The war is draining the country’s economy, and keeping the government funded increasingly depends on decisions made outside Ukraine.
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