Upcoming Bearish Events

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by cicada3322

We have some pretty bearish news on our timelines. Some events aren’t going to manifest immediately, but may materialize within the next 30 trading days. That’s just my opinion.

1.) Monkey-pox: wtf is even this? Ole Joe spoke about it which isn’t great news. Especially since he made it seem as the Federal government is concerned about it. This will probably trigger a large sell-off in the markets these coming weeks. But I don’t think it will be as aggressive as the Rona sell-off. If it as treated as another Global Pandemic, I believe people will panic buy everything at grocery stores again. Which will be even crazier due to global supply shortages on some goods.

I did some reading and I think it spreads through Homosexual activity (So watch out Gay Bears). But other sources have been saying it spreads through skin to skin contact and even air droplets. So I’m even more confused after researching. Since it’s called monkey-pox, I think us Apes are immune or something.

2.) FOMC Meeting: We have a FOMC meeting on the 25th (this week). Hopefully JPOW says something good for us Bulls. But I fucking doubt it. We’ll see how further interest rate hikes affect the markets. I think further hikes will benefit the Banking and Finance sector of the markets. So I expect those to see a green week leading up to the FOMC. I also think these hikes will positively affect mREIT’s holding large unrestricted cash balances. Any mREITS that don’t have large cash balances on hand are fucked for the next 3 to 4 years due to having to borrow at a higher interest rate to fund their debt capital to generate their Mortgage investments (Having a narrower interest rate spread). Those that have over $500m of unrestricted cash are going to see crazy returns. So go ahead and pull Blackrock’s mREIT portfolio to get in early. They have been posturing for this way ahead of schedule. So much so, that it’s actually suspicious.

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3.) Quadruple Witching Day: We have a QWD on June 17th. This shit is like a fucking bearish Catalina Wine Mixer in the Markets. Quadruple witching is an event in financial markets when four different sets of futures and options expire on the same day. futures and options are derivatives, linked to underlying stock prices. When derivatives expire, traders must close or adjust positions. That can trigger significant volume and order flow. The four types of derivatives expiring on quadruple witching are:

  • Stock index futures contracts
  • Single-stock options
  • Options on stock-index futures
  • Stock index options

In the past, these have been bearish events all the way up to the actual day itself (See graph below)

Look at this shit.

As you can see, I think it’s going to be “30 days of blood”. I’m a bull, I’m feeling it. And I hate to see it, but I have to be realistic. I’m going to wait for bottom and keep dumping money in once I see some consolidation. I’m not fucking selling, but I will DCA at the bottom.

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Do what you want with this information. And if you have questions or your own opinion, please share.

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

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