The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting on Wednesday. What will they do?
First, The Fed Funds Target (upper bound) is above the Core US inflation rate YoY. Second, M2 Money growth YoY has slowed to -1.3%.
Of course, the members of the FOMC might decide that this is not enough and may keep raising rates and shrinking The Fed’s enormous balance sheet.
In the “Haven’t they suffered enough?” arena, US real disposable income has fallen by -21% since Biden was sworn-in as President.
On the other hand, the Taylor Rule is still pointing to a target rate of 10% (we aren’t even half way there at 4.50%).
Oh and the price of insuring against a US debt default remains elevated (since Biden and Schumer are baving like arrogant bullies) and are refusing to negotitate over spending cuts.
The 1Y CDS volatility cube indicates that it will all be over soon.
