Either this is going to be the largest short squeeze we've ever seen or most of the institutions that sold these credit default swaps are going under when people seek payment. t.co/qvkqEwle2f
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 20, 2023
The above chart is CDS on U.S. Treasuries not stocks.
VIX is at 16 because people are buying calls on stocks, not puts. Basically everyone is bearish on treasuries and bullish on stocks, a reversal would be violent.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 20, 2023
CDS are only bought by institutions, not retail. Average people are net long stocks right now.
M2 money supply tells you how much is in the system. It's declining at the fastest pace in history.
"Money on the sidelines" is something talking heads use on TV and it means nothing. pic.twitter.com/PkXf5rH4zp
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 20, 2023
A Credit Crunch Is Inevitable.@misest.co/lmj9IHmbkU
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 20, 2023
'The lumber market is sending a curiously divergent message vs. homebuilder stocks.' t.co/UREVhdDIDx ht @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/5jseAwBywv
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) May 19, 2023
Some interesting facts:
1. During the 1920s, real estate prices peaked in the third quarter of 1929, just before the onset of the Great Depression. After this peak, prices fell by 67% by the end of 1932 and remained around that level for most of the Great Depression.
2. There…
— HOZ (@MFHoz) May 19, 2023
Manufacturing says it's already a deep recession pic.twitter.com/8hsz8qkkew
— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) May 19, 2023