by Chris Black
A few theses:
– The peak of the unipolar world – Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory. Further, the situation can only develop in the opposite direction.
– Israel’s existence and prosperity depends entirely on America’s (further impossible) status as the world’s sole superpower and master of the world’s finances.
– Nuclear weapons can no longer guarantee the existence of Israel if its adversaries have the ability to interrupt foreign trade and organize the economic collapse of Israel with the help of modern missile weapons and drones (like attacks on Saudi oil facilities).
– The Arab countries of the Gulf are already part of the Chinese economy, Europe and the United States declare the rejection of fossil energy. The strategic reorientation of Saudi and other Gulf countries from the US to China is a matter of the coming several years.
– Iran has the ability to stop the supply of oil and liquefied gas from the Persian Gulf at any time, organizing the collapse of the world economy and Russia’s victory in the confrontation with the West. The reorientation of Europe from Russian oil and gas, if successful, will take 5-10 years. During this period, Iran is protected from at least large-scale aggression by the United States and Israel. And this period is more than enough…
– Iran is already actually an ally of China. The accession of the Arabs of the Gulf to the Chinese camp can provide security guarantees for both Iran and the Arabs, exhausting the conflict between them.
– Reconciliation with part of the Arab world does not guarantee security for Israel. This friendship is based primarily on a joint confrontation with Iran, but with China replacing America in the Gulf countries, Israel will not be needed. Friendship can end sooner than it started.
All of the mentioned above is true in the case of a relatively peaceful confrontation between China and the United States. In the event of a military conflict, it will most likely take the form of a naval blockade of China by the AUKUS bloc in order to cut off Chinese trade routes, including cutting it off from energy sources in the Middle East. Israel will then become a battlefield, along with the Gulf countries, with corresponding damage.
I think that Israel will not be able to negotiate with China due to the existential nature of the conflict between the US and China. Probably Israel would like to, but Washington will not allow it. Besides, Israel cannot have the same privileged place in the Chinese world as it did in the American one.
For Israel, its connection with the United States becomes toxic, but it cannot exist without it. Israel is on the wrong side of history and it will become more and more obvious every day.
Israel’s traditional bet on strength will work worse every coming month. This approach no longer works with anyone but the Palestinians.
To be honest, I have no idea how Israel is going to get out of this situation. It would have better compromised with the Palestinians and Syrians, but taking in account what Trump has made in the Middle East, this is hardly possible.