Ouch! Developments in global export volume are not a good omen for growth in the euro zone. „We cannot understand why people in the market think this economic downturn is over. The hard data give no sign of that“, HFE’s Weinberg says. pic.twitter.com/KFtWzkTTbM
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 10, 2020
The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks freight rates for the world’s largest dry bulk carriers and is regarded as a bellwether for international shipping activity levels and global economic conditions more generally, is at all-time lows. It has plunged more than 83 % since its peak last September.
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) February 10, 2020
US heavy truck sales peaked in Sep ‘19 & on a YoY basis are down -11%. Truck driving empl. is also 10bps from turning negative YoY. HTS are an excellent lead indicator of the cycle. A peak has led every re-steepening of the US YC by 9M since ‘70. Currently this targets June. TBD. pic.twitter.com/A3B6EhPwr2
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) February 10, 2020
China close to stagflation.
CPI rises 20% while GDP growth estimates are slashed. pic.twitter.com/JhYf5S6Zog
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) February 10, 2020