Bankruptcies coming pic.twitter.com/wmkxwJ9V8o
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 12, 2020
Stanley Druckenmiller – "The consensus seems to be don't worry, the Fed has your back. There's one problem with that, our analysis says it's not true." pic.twitter.com/YdT4vU00hz
— Ben Rickert (@Ben__Rickert) May 13, 2020
Hedge Fund legend Stan Druckenmiller says Risk-Reward in stocks is worst he’s seen. Says the prospect of a V-shaped recovery in the US is “a fantasy.” Says stimulus programs aren’t building growth. t.co/x3cojj2TD3 pic.twitter.com/yeKTOUHUTM
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) May 13, 2020
Regional bank loan provisions pic.twitter.com/hRXk49VNcI
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 13, 2020
NFIB optimism pic.twitter.com/nrNYGC2QH4
— Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) May 13, 2020
LA county extending stay at home orders for another 3 months – what businesses will even be left to open?
— Rob Schmitt (@SchmittNYC) May 12, 2020
No words.. only data pic.twitter.com/3UGr1DHDQ1
— Alessio Urban (@AlessioUrban) May 13, 2020
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) May 13, 2020
— 𝕮𝖍𝖎 🛢️ (@chigrl) May 13, 2020
Investors should prepare for a U.S. “economic depression,” warns Kyle Bass, but China’s fate could be even worse
Hedge-fund manager predicts U.S. economy could contract upwards of 10%
Kyle Bass made his name betting against the U.S. housing market more than a decade ago and now he is predicting an economic contraction that could be more than three times as severe as that suffered during the Great Financial Crisis.
“For the year I think you’re going to see U.S. GDP down somewhere between 7% to 10% in real terms,” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the government’s efforts to contain the spread of the virus with business shut downs. “10% is an economic depression,” said the founder of hedge fund Hayman Capital Management in an interview.
Indeed, the last time the U.S. economy contracted on an annual basis was during the financial crisis in 2009, when it shrank by 2.5%. The last time it shrank by more than 10% was in 1946 at the end of World War Two. Prior to that the U.S. economy shrank by 12.9% in 1932, the height of the Great Depression.
After eleven years of nearly uninterrupted advancement, the record-long, QE-spawned bull market is on life support, facing the effects of pandemic lockdown and a massively leveraged global financial system.
For the Federal Reserve, disinflation is a bit too close to deflation for their liking. And this scenario bolsters the case for the central bank keeping its unprecedented expansion of monetary policy in place for some time.
One of the world’s biggest piles of oil money is taking some profits and planning to dump nearly $40 billion of assets on the market in the coming months in what Bloomberg described as a “historic” sale.