Weimar Part Deux? Bitcoin Exceeds $50,000, M1 Money Growing At 69.7% YoY With M1 Money Velocity Falling To 3.9 (“Inflation” Of Only 1.45% YoY While House Prices Grow At 11% YoY)

by confoundedinterest17

Six months after powering to a record above $2,075 an ounce, gold’s suffered from a so-called death cross, a bearish technical pattern that may presage further losses. With signs of a recovery from the pandemic undercutting global demand for haven assets, bullion’s 50-day moving average has retreated below its 200-day counterpart. The last time gold experienced a similar shift was in mid-2018, shortly before the precious metal tumbled to a 19-month low.

Bitcoin tops $50,000 for the first time, then retreats.

Here is an interesting analysis of the hyperinflation of the German Weimar Republic from 1921 to 1923.

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Where does the USA sit? M1 money is growing at 69.7% YoY (1920 Weimar) and house price growth is 11% YoY (1916 Weimar).

M1 velocity is 3.9186 (not dissimilar from 1917 Weimar).

Gold skyrocketed during the 1920-1923 Weimar period.

Then we have Teher.

The Federal Reserve will argue that core inflation is only 1.45% YoY since the BLS ignores food and energy in their calculations of inflation.

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Then we have this tantalizing headline from Bloomberg: “Yellen Shift on Vast Treasury Cash Pile Poses Problem for Powell”

The Treasury’s decision — unveiled at its quarterly refunding announcement — will help unleash what Credit Suisse Group AG analyst Zoltan Pozsar calls a “tsunami” of reserves into the financial system and on to the Fed’s balance sheet. Combined with the Fed’s asset purchases, that could swell reserves to about $5 trillion by the end of June, from an already lofty $3.3 trillion now.

Zoltan!

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