Weimar Part Deux? Bitcoin Exceeds $50,000, M1 Money Growing At 69.7% YoY With M1 Money Velocity Falling To 3.9 (“Inflation” Of Only 1.45% YoY While House Prices Grow At 11% YoY)

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by confoundedinterest17

Six months after powering to a record above $2,075 an ounce, gold’s suffered from a so-called death cross, a bearish technical pattern that may presage further losses. With signs of a recovery from the pandemic undercutting global demand for haven assets, bullion’s 50-day moving average has retreated below its 200-day counterpart. The last time gold experienced a similar shift was in mid-2018, shortly before the precious metal tumbled to a 19-month low.

Bitcoin tops $50,000 for the first time, then retreats.

Here is an interesting analysis of the hyperinflation of the German Weimar Republic from 1921 to 1923.

Where does the USA sit? M1 money is growing at 69.7% YoY (1920 Weimar) and house price growth is 11% YoY (1916 Weimar).

M1 velocity is 3.9186 (not dissimilar from 1917 Weimar).

Gold skyrocketed during the 1920-1923 Weimar period.

Then we have Teher.

The Federal Reserve will argue that core inflation is only 1.45% YoY since the BLS ignores food and energy in their calculations of inflation.

Then we have this tantalizing headline from Bloomberg: “Yellen Shift on Vast Treasury Cash Pile Poses Problem for Powell”

The Treasury’s decision — unveiled at its quarterly refunding announcement — will help unleash what Credit Suisse Group AG analyst Zoltan Pozsar calls a “tsunami” of reserves into the financial system and on to the Fed’s balance sheet. Combined with the Fed’s asset purchases, that could swell reserves to about $5 trillion by the end of June, from an already lofty $3.3 trillion now.

Zoltan!

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