Stocks are rallying on recession news. LOL
I guess they think no more rate hikes.
Welcome to STAGFLATION. Fed forced to hike rates into a slow economy.
What a complete cluster.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 28, 2022
The Fed Just Got Rid of Forward Guidance Because It’s Making It Up as It Goes
Ultimately, it’s all just more tinkering, and what the Fed should be doing is stepping way back from monetary policy. It should stop “setting” the interest rate altogether. The Fed should cease open market operations, allowing the marketplace to discover what the real market interest rates actually are. That, unfortunately, is not on the Fed’s list of options.
1973 – 2022 Fractal
Both stagflation pic.twitter.com/esTcKoUk4y
— HOZ (@MFHoz) July 27, 2022
Real estate will collapse despite a housing shortage.
Mortgage rates have more than doubled, new home buyers will be given smaller loans, sellers will be forced to lower prices to meet demand.
People will be losing jobs unable to meet mortgage payment too.
Free fall.
— HOZ (@MFHoz) July 27, 2022
The enemy is inflation not the FED
Pivoting will mean higher inflation expectations > real growth falls apart
The FED it’s trapped.. the FED will crash the economy or the economy will do it by itself
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) July 28, 2022
Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo: "We all know what a recession is," no matter how you feel about it, "people are feeling [the] pressure." pic.twitter.com/qPB3mysTV8
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 28, 2022
As illustrated below, and abstracting from the political debate, "recession" will feature in headlines and will stick in many people's minds.
You don't have to be a fan of behavioral and/or narrative economics to conclude that this will undermine business and household sentiment. pic.twitter.com/KO7AK5K7Gt— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) July 28, 2022
BREAKING: The United States is now in a recession after 2 confirmed successive quarters of negative growth
Q1 GDP -1.4%
Q2 GDP -0.9%— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) July 28, 2022
Comcast fails to add broadband subscribers for first time ever as economy slows.
Based on Analysis of the Final Q2 GDPNow, a Recession Started in May
Starting in May, retail sales floundered and housing fell though the floor. The RFS component of GDP fell from 3.7 percent to 1.1 percent. That means -2.6 percent on RFS in May and June. That’s a pretty steep contraction. Strength in April negates a recession starting in the first quarter regardless of two quarters of negative GDP.
Strong Labor Market? Initial Jobless Claims Hit 8 Month Highs
While we keep being told that the labor market is ‘too strong to be in recession’, anyone who cares to look at the higher frequency data will see that narrative coll;apsing fast as initial jobless claims rose to 256k last week (worse than the 250k expected)…