What honestly changed from yesterday to today? Battling Coronavirus with fiscal stimulus is effective as putting a bandaid on flesh eating bacteria. Today is nothing more than an opportunity to establish more puts two weeks further out.

by kafkagoeswest

Trump’s economic policies aren’t preventing what we’re seeing in Europe right now, from happening to America in the next six weeks. We are no closer to containment, and even as we see massive events cancelled like SXSW and conferences galore, you still have families in Disneyland, Vegas, and all sorts of interactions. This disease is spreading, and we still haven’t seen the full roll out of testing, so we have no idea how many people are infected and currently spreading this to more people. Those numbers are going to come in massive, and it has nothing to do with fiscal stimulus and everything to do with containment, quarantine, and a healthcare solution.

When the market opened and hit over 800 I never flinched, because we are no closer today in solving the containment measures, nor are we any closer to understanding the fiscal impact of having an inevitable societal shut down to mitigate the epidemic.

TLDR: 🐻🌈 market until we see something that addresses the health crisis; fiscal stimulus is putting a bandaid on cancer.

EDIT: My two weeks out puts are specifically to handle the initial panic of the buildup of infections that haven’t been tested. I have longer puts that have been held for a couple weeks, are in the money, and believe much more downside to go. I’m just using this bounce and time as a way to stockpile more, because more people are getting infected, and when we hear that initial number it’s going to create chaos and a crater.

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.