With Q2 GDP data being announced this Thursday on July 28th, Pelosi’s boss and gang have already began defending the presumably negative number we’ll see.
On the heels of a negative Q1 GDP of -1.6%, some of the most recent Q2 forecasts are pointing to barely positive Q2 GDP, or possibly (most likely) negative:
Goldman Sachs: +0.7%
The Conference Board: +0.8%
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: -1.6%
Now this is where it gets saucy. As some of you less retarded people might already know, the criteria of a recession is generally acknowledged as the occurrence of 2 consecutive quarters with negative GDP. I’ve included some examples, rather than pull this claim out of my loose ass:
Investopedia: “The working definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession, and uses more frequently reported monthly data to make its decision, so quarterly declines in GDP do not always align with the decision to declare a recession.”
Forbes: “In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.”
United state Government Accountability Office: “A pervasive, substantial decline in overall business activity that is of at least several months’ duration. The National Bureau of Economic Research identifies recessions on the basis of several indicators. As a rule of thumb, recessions are commonly identified by a decline in real GDP for at least two consecutive quarters.”
Business Insider: “A recession is a significant economic downturn spread across the economy that lasts more than a few quarters. More specifically, Recessions often get boiled down to a simple definition: when gross domestic product (GDP) declines for two consecutive quarters. This prevailing line of thought, popularized by economist Julius Shiskin in 1974, only captures a small corner of a recession’s true scope.”
Now just last week, a couple posts from whitehouse.gov are already claiming that the textbook definition of a recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP) isn’t the REAL measure of a recession:
How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? “While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle.”
ICYMI: Treasury Secretary Yellen Says US Economy Not in Recession “As she explains, the technical and actual definition of a recession takes into account “a broad range of data” and states “this is not an economy that’s in recession.”
TODD: “If the technical definition is two quarters of contraction, you’re saying that’s not a recession?”
YELLEN: “That’s not the technical definition.”
Joe and his handlers are clinging to the fact that the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit organization, is technically responsible for “officially” announcing the beginning and end of a recession. Yet another fact is that as of Thursday, we’ll have 2 consecutive quarters with a negative GDP.
The government’s actual definition of a recession isn’t going to change the public sentiment around what everyone is already feeling. Come Thursday afternoon, a negative GDP will be announced, media headlines will all claim a Recession is here based on the new number, and I guess we’ll see what the market does.
TLDR; Negative GDP on Thursday guaranteed. Media will claim Recession is official as of July 28th. Puts on the Economy, idk.
EDIT: I’m not saying a recession is here, I’m saying the media is going to eat up a negative GDP number. The whole point of this post is the guarantee that Q2 GDP will be negative. I specifically didn’t make a claim to what the market will do, so think/do what you wish.
EDIT 2: Someone asked for a graph so here’s a graph of GDP for 2022 📉
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.