Why does everyone “think it’s different this time?”

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From 1945 to 2008 there have been 11 periods of expansion, lasting an AVG of 59 MOS. 2 expansions longer than current, Feb 1961-Dec 1969 = 106 mos & Mar 1991-Mar 2001 = 120 mos June 2009-current = 105 mos Why does everyone “think it’s different this time?”


COINCIDENT ACTIVITY INDEX AS A INDICATOR During the times that this index declines to ~+2.5% (1981, 1990, 2001, 2007) the economy enters recession. 3Q2017 = 2.69%

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h/t OccupyWisdom

Europe’s Boom Reawakens the Ghost of Crisis Past: Debt

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No room to stimulate when the cycle rolls over. Its been pedal to the metal since the 2012 crisis, so the next will be extra brutal.

By bulking up on debt, U.S. companies have created a timebomb


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